2020 US Presidential Election Odds: America On Fire as Long Hot Summer Begins  


Saturday’s Atlanta police shooting that resulted in the death of a black man in a Wendy’s Parking lot set off a country that is already on edge.  Rayshard Brooks died after a struggle with two officers.  Brooks is said to have fallen asleep as he was parked in the Wendy’s drive through, blocking other customers.  Brooks allegedly failed a breathalyzer test for alcohol and then took a taser from an officer and later pointed it at one of the policemen and was shot.  He later died at the hospital.  Subsequently the Wendy’s was burned to the ground that very night.  Riots ensued with streets and highways blocked.  The Atlanta police chief resigned and Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms called for the immediate termination of the office who shot Brooks.

On the heels of the George Floyd riots, this summer has the look of an unmitigated disaster for the United States and its major cities.  Handicapping the political fallout for the 2020 Presidential election is becoming quite complicated.

2020 US Presidential Election Odds:  

Donald Trump +117

Joe Biden -135

All Others +8500 or greater

2020 US Presidential Election Odds Overview and Analysis

With Democrat controlled major cities literally on fire or surrendering territory to groups such as ANTIFA the first reaction would seem to be that it would help President Donald Trump with his law and order marquee.  But it is not.  Trump has done little more than bluster about it while not actually taking bold action.  Joe Biden has been quite low key about it all which seems to help his polling numbers.

Is Trump Slow Playing Situation?

On the Monday after massive protests and riots that came after the George Floyd killing in Minneapolis, President Trump swaggered about “dominating the streets” with law enforcement that was so overwhelming that riots and lawlessness would stop.  The reality of his boast has been underwhelming.  His tweets continue to be muscular even as his actions do not.

To many Trump supporters, the rhetoric is great but the lack of action is frustrating.  Voters in the middle see Democrats that are passive about the riots and looting.  And then they see feckless Republicans tweeting as they do nothing to stop it either.  This leads to the questions as to why and what good are the Republicans?

One theory is that President Trump believes the best strategy is to let the Democrats hang themselves.  Indeed, the ANTIFA takeover of several blocks in Seattle and rioters burning a Wendy’s to the ground in Atlanta on the heels of Minneapolis looking like a war zone hit by nuclear bombs is a powerful indictment against such Democrat Party dominated areas.  It is also true that if Trump sends in the military there will be screams of hysteria by the “news” media.  But if Trump knows all of this why does he tweet with such bombast, knowing that he will do nothing in the end?

The entire situation doesn’t really play to any one of the two party’s strengths.  It does, however, illustrate the weakness of both political parties.

Biden Hidin’ in Basement

Joe Biden has become a small favorite with the recent odds to beat Trump in November’s Presidential election.  So far Biden’s best strategy is to not be seen or heard.  His numbers go up when he is tucked in the basement of his home.  The one time he was let out last week produced yet another one of his infamous gaffes when he said that the George Floyd murder had a bigger global impact than the assassination of Martin Luther King.  MLK’s niece Alveda King strongly criticized Biden and said that he is speaking with “a reality that is different from what’s happening in the real world.”

Election Will Be Decided at the Wire

As we saw in 2016 an election that involves Donald Trump will have many ebbs and flows to it.  Trump was in a double-digit deficit against Hillary Clinton with less than a month to go in 2016 and yet ended up as the winner.  For the next five months there are going to be tremendous waves that slam into the candidates and electorate.  But where things stand in the last few days of this election cycle is what will prove decisive.