2021 PGA Championship Odds and Predictions

0
237

The second major of the year should be a doozy with a stacked field getting together for the PGA Championship. Co-favorite Rory McIlroy has fond memories of the Kiawah Island Golf Resort with his win here in 2012 setting a tournament record for biggest margin. Rory lapped the field for an 8-shot win and he comes in off a title in his last start. The top of the odds board is littered with a who’s who in the sport with a number of storylines. Can third favorite Xander Schauffele break through for his first major title after a number of close calls? Jordan Spieth has returned to form and is in a good spot to get the career Grand Slam. And Collin Morikawa looks to defend his title after capturing the hardware at TPC Harding Park back in August.

The PGA Championship runs from May 20-23 at Kiawah Island Golf Resort in South Carolina. ESPN will televise the first two rounds with CBS taking over weekend chores.

PGA Championship Odds

Rory McIlroy +1085

Jon Rahm +1085

Xander Schauffele +1401

Justin Thomas +1550

Bryson Dechambeau +1700

Jordan Spieth +1815

Dustin Johnson +1815

Viktor Hovland +2428

Daniel Berger +2851

Patrick Reed +3151

Collin Morikawa +3560

Patrick Cantlay +3678

Cameron Smith +4025

Tony Finau +4150

Scottie Scheffler +4400

Matthew Fitzpatrick +4450

Webb Simpson +4500

Tyrrell Hatton +4550

Hideki Matsuyama +4750

Abraham Ancer +4750

Brooks Koepka +5050

Sam Burns +5150

Corey Conners +5550

Will Zalatoris +5700

Joaquin Niemann +5750

Tommy Fleetwood +7350

Paul Casey +7350

Charl Schwartzel +7550

Marc Leishman +7650

Louis Oosthuizen +7750

(Odds provided by BookMaker.eu as of Wednesday at 11:00 a.m. ET)

Odds Analysis

Typical of a major championship the top of the odds board is congested with the biggest names in the sport. McIlroy and Jon Rahm are the co-favorites with five others listed with shorter than 20/1 odds. The best players in the world gear up for majors so it pays to stay close to the top of the board when picking an outright winner. McIlroy busted out of his slump at a good time as he looks for his fifth major championship and third PGA Championship title. He set a tournament record with his eight-shot win on this course in 2012 and won it again two years later at Valhalla.

There are several big names without a major championship and Rahm is one of them. He’s been a mixed bag since becoming a dad prior to the Masters, but he’s been a monster in big time events. He has yet to win this season but he’s been close with a Tour-best nine top-10s in 15 starts. Schauffele is another looking for a maiden major. He always seems to be in contention but hasn’t gotten over the hump. He has five top-5s, including a pair of runner-up finishes, in 13 career majors.

There is no one hotter than Spieth right now and even COVID couldn’t stop his heater. He overcame the virus to finish T9 last week in the Byron Nelson, his seventh top-10 in his last nine starts that included a win in the Texas Open to end a four-year title drought. He’s in a good spot to get the career Grand Slam as long as the pressure doesn’t get to him. For some reason I doubt that’s going to happen.

The Field

With over 150 of the best golfers in the world pegging it up this week there’s always a chance we get someone further down the odds board making a run at the title. And there are some solid value picks in the next tier of favorites. Defending champ Collin Morikawa is getting overlooked and offers a nice payday at his current price. Results have been mixed since his win at the WGC Workday but his stats suggest a strong showing this week. He leads the Tour in strokes gained: approach and is second in strokes gained: tee-to-green making him a target.

Following a few months of struggles Dustin Johnson is offered at a discount, though he’s still better than 20/1 on the board. This is actually a good spot for DJ since it’s kind of a home game for him. He’s a native South Carolinian and is there a better way to snap out of a funk than in front of hundreds of family and friends?

The Ocean Course at Kiawah Island is a monster at nearly 7,900 yards, the longest in major championship history. That would seemingly play to the strength of Bryson DeChambeau, who bombs it better than everyone on Tour. He also tops the circuit in strokes gained: off the tee and tee-to-green, making him a near perfect fit for this layout.

MCKINNEY, TEXAS – MAY 13: Jordan Spieth hits an approach shot on the 14th hole during round one of the AT&T Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch on May 13, 2021 in McKinney, Texas. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)

PGA Championship Prediction

Our pick: Jordan Spieth +1815

Anything can happen when you put the best golfers in the world on what has been called the toughest course on Tour. Nestled along the shores of the Atlantic, the coastal winds will certainly be a factor. Manage that part of the game and the rest is much easier. Nobody is playing better than Spieth and with the Grand Slam in his sights he has to go for it.