Rivalry games are always unpredictable and the annual Iron Bowl between the Alabama Crimson Tide and Auburn Tigers has produced some big time moments in the past. The teams have split the last four meetings with Auburn winning both on its home turf.
They weren’t as big of an underdog in those games as they are for Saturday’s tilt, though. With their eyes set on the SEC title game and another trip to the College Football Playoff, the Tide opened as a 17.5-point favorite on the college football betting line and saw that number wagered up another 2-points.
The Week 13 college football game between the Alabama Crimson Tide and Auburn Tigers will take place at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn, AL at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, November 27, 2021 and will be televised on CBS.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs Auburn Tigers Odds
Alabama Crimson Tide -19 | Auburn Tigers +19 [BET NOW]
Alabama Crimson Tide vs Auburn Tigers Over/Under
Over/Under 55.5 [BET NOW]
Auburn’s recent skid has the betting public pounding Alabama in this matchup. The Tide opened as a 17.5-point favorite with the line quickly wagered to Bama -19.5. Their last two games against SEC foes have been closer than most expected. Laying 29.5-points to LSU in Week 10, the Tide squeaked by with a 20-14 victory. Last week the defense had a hard time slowing down Arkansas, but Bryce Young made up for it by throwing five touchdown passes in a 42-35 win over the Hogs. Bama failed to cover as a 20.5-favorite. In between there was a 59-3 romp over New Mexico State with the Tide covering the massive 51.5-point spread.
Three consecutive losses turned what was a promising season into a disaster. Following a win over Ole Miss at the end of October, the Tigers were 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS. They haven’t won since going 0-3 SU and ATS. They had a 14-0 lead over South Carolina last week before unraveling in an eventual 21-17 loss while laying 7-points. And the offense struggled with Bo Nix sidelined for the rest of the year. The Tigers have won two straight and three of the last four at home against Bama playing as a dog each time. The current line, though, is the highest in the last five meetings at Jordan-Hare.
Alabama Crimson Tide
There have been some minor flaws on defense, but Young and the offense have been able to make up the difference. Young had a record setting day against Arkansas throwing for a program record 559 yards on 31 of 40 passing with five TDs. Alabama never trailed in the game but they couldn’t put the Hogs away either and the Tide needed every bit of the 671 total yards they accumulated. Alabama has one of the top offenses in the country averaging over 501 yards while scoring 44.4 points per game. Young vaulted into the Heisman Trophy race with his performance last week using every weapon in his arsenal.
While the defense has been solid for the most part, the group occasionally has a letdown leading to some uncomfortable moments. Last week was one of those times. Arkansas has a decent offense but they went over their season averages in yards and points. Bama won’t have to face Bo Nix and instead gets backup T.J. Finley, who isn’t as mobile or as good a passer. That should help the defense get back to normal.
For Auburn’s sake you can throw the records and stats out the window for the Iron Bowl. Having lost three straight the Tigers can still make the season a success with a win over their arch rival. And in order to do that they have to win the battle in the trenches and open holes for Tank Bigsby in the run game. Bigsby ran for 164 yards on 22 carries against the Gamecocks and has nearly 1,000 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns on the season. Churning out yards and first downs on the ground will help keep Bama’s offense on the bench.
Auburn isn’t going to win a shootout so they have to control the game through Bigsby. Finley threw for 188 yards and a touchdown last week and will have to do more to keep pace. A balanced attack will help keep the pressure off him. And you know the guy is going to have butterflies making his second start of the season in the Iron Bowl. There are holes in Bama’s defense and Finley has to find them to keep this game close.
Alabama vs Auburn
Bama won its last two games against FBS foes by a touchdown each at home. And they weren’t playing the cream of the crop in those games. Instead they barely got by a mediocre LSU squad and were closer than expected against a good, not great, Arkansas squad. Auburn is hurting without Nix, but I expect Finley to have a solid game. And if the Tigers can produce on the ground they have a better chance of staying within the spread.
Prediction: Auburn Tigers +19 and OVER 55.5
View all Week 13 college football odds.