Alabama vs Mississippi State Predictions & Odds


While they no longer have the best record in college football, the Alabama Crimson Tide is still the best team. It had to happen eventually after so many consecutive victories and it did last week with the Tide seeing their 19-game winning streak end 41-38 to Texas AM. That’s the same team the Mississippi State Bulldogs beat on the road two weeks ago, so Mike Leach’s group has to at least feel good about that.

But you can expect the Tide to come out angry after the setback and facing Bama under normal circumstances is difficult enough. Oddsmakers weren’t swayed by recent events installing the Tide as a 17.5-point favorite on the opening college football betting line.

The Week 7 college football game between the Alabama Crimson Tide and Mississippi State Bulldogs will take place at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, MS at 7 p.m. ET on Saturday, October 16, 2021 and will be televised on ESPN.

The Week 7 college football game between the Alabama Crimson Tide and Mississippi State Bulldogs will take place at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, MS at 7 p.m. ET on Saturday, October 16, 2021 and will be televised on ESPN.

Alabama vs Mississippi State Odds

Alabama Crimson Tide -17 [BET NOW]

Mississippi State Bulldogs +17 [BET NOW]

Over/Under 57.5 [BET NOW]

Odds Analysis

With the exception of the number in the loss column not much has changed for Alabama. Playing as at least a two-touchdown favorite in every game, the Tide hit the board laying 17.5-points. The number was wagered down slightly to Bama -17. Playing against whopping spreads the Tide is 3-3 ATS this year.

Favored by at least 14 points in each of their last 12 regular season games, Bama is 9-3 ATS. Bama has won 13 straight in the series and is 3-0 ATS in the last three outscoring MSU 103-7 with the UNDER cashing each time.

The Bulldogs entered last week’s bye following a big 26-22 upset of Texas AM breaking a two-game SU and ATS losing streak. They dropped games to Memphis and LSU by a total of five points. Overall they are 3-2 ATS and 2-3 SU. The Dogs closed last season with a pair of wins and are 5-2 SU in their previous seven games while going 6-4 ATS in their previous 10 outings. History isn’t on their side, however. MSU hasn’t beaten Bama since 2007, which was their second win in the last 20 meetings.

Alabama Crimson Tide

The last time Alabama lost a game was during the 2019 season when they actually dropped a pair of games. They responded both times with convincing efforts. After a home loss to LSU, the Tide responded with a 38-7 road triumph over these MSU Bulldogs. You might remember Tua Tagovailoa getting hurt in that one with Mac Jones taking over.

They were defeated that year in the SEC Championship only to slap Michigan 35-16 in the Citrus Bowl. This is a program that doesn’t take kindly to losing. “Everyone needs to remember how they feel and not forget it,” Nick Saban said after the Texas AM defeat.

The offense did its part, but failures on defense and special teams proved costly. Bryce Young threw for 369 yards and three touchdowns while Brian Robinson rushed for 147 yards. In all the Tide racked up 522 yards. Early turnovers gave the Aggies life and the defense couldn’t get to Zach Calzada.

Texas AM built a 24-10 first half lead, the most points allowed to an unranked foe in Saban’s tenure. I’m not too worried about Alabama, but Mississippi State should be. It’s hard to win every game and breakdowns happen eventually. The Tide has responded well to setbacks in the past and they are the more talented club.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

The bye may have come at a bad time for the Bulldogs. Not only were they riding high after their upset of Texas AM, they haven’t had a lot of success recently following an off week. And now they have to face a pissed off Bama squad.

MSU is just 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in its last seven post-bye games. Two of those defeats were to Bama, including last season’s 41-0 setback when the Dogs failed to cover the 29-point line. Things can be different this time around with Will Rogers thriving in Leach’s Air Raid attack.

I guess if anybody enjoyed the bye week Rogers did to give his arm a rest. Against Texas AM Rogers was 46 of 59 for 408 yards and three touchdowns. He’s attempted at least 47 passes in every game and averages almost 57 attempts. He’s thrown for 1,862 yards with 14 touchdowns and only two interceptions.

And like we saw last week, Bama can give up plays in the secondary. The key is keeping pressure off Rogers and the line did a good job against the Aggies allowing only two sacks. Rogers has been sacked 10 times on the year, a remarkably low number considering how many times he throws the ball.

Our Prediction: Alabama Crimson Tide -17 and OVER 57.5

Alabama vs Mississippi State Prediction

I’d like to see MSU play well and get the upset, but Bama is too good and you can bet they’re steamed after last week’s result. Nobody rallies his troops better than Saban and you know the Tide are going to be ready. They may take some shots, but they’ll step up defensively to get the cover. And they might hit the total on their own.

Our Prediction: Alabama Crimson Tide -17 and OVER 57.5

View Week 7 college football odds.