Baltimore Ravens vs Miami Dolphins Predictions

0
266

To say it’s been an unsettling season for the Miami Dolphins is an understatement. After winning 10 games and barely missing the playoffs last season, there was plenty of optimism that the upward trajectory would continue. Well, that hasn’t been the case.

At least the Fins ended their 7-game losing streak with a victory over Houston last week giving them some confidence heading into their Thursday night tilt with the Baltimore Ravens. Miami opened as a 7-point underdog in the first game of the Week 10 betting slate.

The Week 10 Thursday Night Football game between the Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins will take place at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, FL at 8:20 p.m. ET on November 11 and will be televised on FOX and NFL Network.

The Week 10 Thursday Night Football game between the Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins will take place at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, FL at 8:20 p.m. ET on November 11 and will be televised on FOX and NFL Network.

Baltimore Ravens vs Miami Dolphins Odds

Baltimore Ravens -7 | Miami Dolphins +7 [BET NOW]

Baltimore Ravens vs Miami Dolphins Money Line

Baltimore Ravens -350 | Miami Dolphins +281 [BET NOW]

Baltimore Ravens vs Miami Dolphins Over/Under

Over/Under 47.5 [BET NOW]

Odds Analysis

Coming off their bye it took the Ravens some time to get going. They were down 14 points in the second half on Sunday before rallying to beat Minnesota 34-31 in overtime. It was their second straight OT win, but they failed to cover the 7.5-point spread, their second straight ATS loss and third in four games. Baltimore is 6-2 SU and 3-5 ATS.

They opened as a 7-point favorite, which might not be a good thing. The Ravens are 0-3 ATS in games when favored by 7-points or more. Miami stopped its losing streak and earned a payout for the first time since Week 3 defeating Houston on Sunday. The Fins were 0-4-1 ATS before their 17-9 victory as a 4-point favorite. The total opened at 47.5, which would be the highest in a game between the clubs.

Baltimore Ravens

Things looked bleak at the start of the season with injuries piling up right before the first game. The Ravens went out and lost the opener to the Raiders in overtime. They’ve been resilient since winning six of seven games, two in overtime and four by a combined 12 points. They haven’t been as generous to their backers, though. The Ravens are 0-2 ATS in their last two games and 1-3 ATS over their last four. They just completed a rare 4-game homestand and with their bye they haven’t played on the road in over a month.

I guess if you’re travelling for the first time in a while it’s good to face a club you’ve dominated. The Ravens won the previous three meetings with Miami by a combined score of 137-16. The last time they played was the 2019 opener in South Florida with the Ravens posting a 59-10 victory. Lamar Jackson had arguably the best passing game of his career hitting 17 of 20 attempts for 324 yards and a career-best five touchdowns. Baltimore’s ownage dates back over a decade going 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS since the start of the 2008 season.

The defense hasn’t been as stellar as past seasons forcing Jackson and the offense to up their game. Averaging nearly 428 total yards the Ravens rank second in the NFL and they’ve scored at least 30 points in a game four times to rank seventh with 27.6 per contest. And if they get behind don’t count them out. The win over Minnesota was the third time this season they overcame a double digit second half deficit.

Miami Dolphins

Issues and injuries on both sides of the football have plagued the Dolphins. While the offense continues to flounder with QB Tua Tagovailoa nursing a finger injury, Jacoby Brissett stepped in and did enough to help the Fins end a 7-game skid with a 17-9 win and cover over Houston on Sunday. The defense had a good game for a change, albeit against the woeful Texans. “It’s good to get a win,” Brian Flores said.

For the first time since the season opener the Dolphins allowed fewer than 23 points holding the Texans to 272 total yards while forcing four turnovers. They had that many takeaways in the previous five games combined. That’s the good news. The bad news is that Miami coughed it up five times themselves yet still managed to win. That carelessness with the football won’t get it done against a better Ravens club. The Dolphins have the second-most giveaways in the NFL and rank near the bottom with a minus-5 turnover margin.

The QB situation remains fluid with Tagovailoa’s status uncertain. Brissett was the surprise starter on Sunday with Tua active as the backup. “We just felt like we were better off going with Jacoby,” Flores said about his decision. Brissett was 26 of 43 for 244 yards with a touchdown. However, he was intercepted twice and sacked four times. And the 24th ranked passing game took a blow when Devante Parker was put on IR.

Prediction: Baltimore Ravens -7 and OVER 47.5

Ravens vs Dolphins Prediction

I’m not sure if having Tagovailoa back in the starting lineup is going to help Miami. QB play has been sub-par with Tua and Brissett combining to throw nine picks and 12 touchdowns. The defense has taken a major step back as well and will have a hard time trying to stop Jackson. I don’t see this a rout, but I do have the Ravens covering as a 7-point road favorite.

Prediction: Baltimore Ravens -7 and OVER 47.5

View Week 10 NFL odds here.