If you don’t like this matchup then you don’t like the NFL. A rematch of last season’s AFC Championship takes place in the Week 5 edition of Sunday Night Football when the Buffalo Bills take on the Kansas City Chiefs. With Patrick Mahomes throwing three touchdowns, the Chiefs earned their second straight AFC title with a 38-24 decision over the up-and-coming Bills.
We’ll see just how far Buffalo has progressed in this tilt. This game not only pits two of the top teams in the conference against each other, it also showcases two of the best young QBs in the game. Buffalo closed as a 3-point dog in the conference title game and hit the board catching 3.5-points for this one. The number has been wagered down a point giving us a feeling of déjà vu.
The Week 5 NFL game between the Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs will take place at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO at 8:20 p.m. ET on Sunday, October 10 and will be televised on NBC.
Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs Odds
Buffalo Bills +2.5 | Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 [BET NOW]
Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs Money Line
Buffalo Bills +125 | Kansas City Chiefs -145 [BET NOW]
Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs Over/Under
Over/Under 56.5 [BET NOW]
The Bills ran their winning streak to three with last week’s 40-0 shellacking of Houston, covering the humongous 19-point spread in the process. It was also their third straight cover and dating back to last season they’ve been a bettors dream. Over their last 15 games the Bills are 12-3 ATS. However, one of those setbacks was to the Chiefs back in January with KC also winning and covering regular season contest, 26-17, in Buffalo as a 5.5-point favorite.
The Chiefs stopped a 2-game SU slide and 3-game ATS skid with their 42-30 win over Philly last week. Defense remains an issue with the OVER 3-1 against totals of at least 53 points. The over/under of 56.5 is the highest on the Week 5 board.
The Bills have been on fire since their season-opening clunker against the Steelers. Maybe they needed that wakeup call to show that they just can’t show up and expect to win. Since that 23-16 loss to the Steelers, Buffalo has outscored its opponents 118-21 pitching a pair of shutouts. Granted it wasn’t the fiercest competition. Miami has taken a step back and was without its starting quarterback, Washington is average at best and the Texans are a mess.
This week sets up to be a much tougher test but at least the Bills are full of confidence thanks to their dominating three-game SU and ATS winning streak. It’s easy to marvel over Josh Allen and the offensive exploits. Averaging nearly 40 points over the last three games is hard to do even against weak competition. But the Bills are riding a stingy defense into KC with hopes of shutting down Mahomes and one of the top offenses.
Limiting possessions is a key for the defense. The Bills forced five Houston turnovers last week and lead the NFL with 11 takeaways and a plus-7 turnover margin. All of the takeaways came during the last three games after not having one in the opening loss.
Kansas City Chiefs
While the defense continues to work out its issues it’s going to be up to Mahomes and the offense to outscore opponents. And they’ve been pretty good at doing that. The Chiefs hung a season-high point total on the Eagles in last week’s 42-30 triumph with Mahomes throwing for 278 yards and five touchdowns. They’ve scored at least 33 points in three of their four games and have the second-highest scoring outfit in the NFL at 33.5 points per game.
Making the group even tougher to defend is the emergence of running game that produced 200 yards and an average of 6.3 yards on 32 attempts against the Eagles. Clyde Edwards-Helaire had his second straight 100-yard game with 102 on 14 carries in Philly. He’s currently the seventh-leading rusher in the NFL, something unheard of since Mahomes took over.
While we know what the Chiefs can do on offense, getting the D in order is a priority. If the group continues to play the way it has we’ll end up seeing something similar to KC’s Week 2 loss to Baltimore. The Chiefs are next to last in yards and points allowed and surrendered 387 passing yards to Jalen Hurts last week. So it isn’t surprising to see them cash the OVER in three of four games.
Bills vs Chiefs Prediction
There are a few ways to look at this one. The Bills will have to play a strong game defensively, which likely leads to the UNDER paying out. KC will look to light off more fireworks and recently supplied Mahomes with another weapon in Josh Gordon, who could make his debut on Sunday. Given their woes on defense scoring as many points as possible is a path to KC’s victory. And with KC playing at home I have to lean toward the Chiefs, though I do begrudgingly.
Our Predictions: Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 and OVER 56.5
Check out all available NFL Week 5 odds.