Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Predictions

It’s not a true AFC East title game since neither team can clinch the division with a win, but the outcome of the Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots game will go a long way toward determining the eventual champion. The teams met just a few weeks ago with the Pats taking control of the division by virtue of their 14-10 win. But New England had its seven-game winning streak snapped last week by the Colts giving Buffalo hope that it can repeat.

The Bills currently hold down the final playoff spot in the AFC but they can win the division by running the table. They stopped a 2-game slide with a win over Carolina last week and haven’t won consecutive games since early October. This would be a good time for the Bills to end that spell, though they are a 3-point underdog on the NFL betting line.

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Date & Time

This Week 16 NFL regular season game between the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots will take place at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, MA at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday, December 26, 2021 and will be televised on CBS.

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Odds

Bills +3 | Patriots -3 [BET NOW]

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Over/Under

Over/Under 43.5 [BET NOW]

Odds Analysis

Following back to back losses to New England and Tampa Bay by a combined 10 points, the Bills got back in the win column with a thorough 31-14 pounding of Carolina last week, covering the 14.5-point spread. It had been a confounding last few months with five losses in eight games before the Carolina matchup. Four of those setbacks were by six points or less with the Bills going 2-5-1 ATS over that span.

The spread has flipped for this week’s matchup with the Pats positioned as a 3-point favorite. When the clubs met on Dec. 6 in Buffalo, the Bills were laying 3-points on the closing line losing a tight 14-10 decision. We’ve historically seen low scoring affairs between the division rivals with the UNDER at 8-5-1 in the previous 14 meetings. The total hit the board at 43.5, which would be the second highest in the last six encounters.

Buffalo Bills

If the Bills are starting to peak they’re doing it at the right time. They fell short a few weeks ago against the defending champs, but they built off a solid second half in that game that saw them come back to forge a tie only to lose in overtime. Things weren’t as close last week as the Bills ended a 2-game slide and won for just the fourth time in nine games.

With Josh Allen limited by a sore foot, Devin Singletary took over rushing for 86 yards and a touchdown. The Bills totaled 119 yards while averaging 4.4 yards per carry. Allen didn’t have overpowering numbers completing only 19 of 34 for 210 yards. Three of those completions went for touchdowns and the Bills matched their second-highest point total in the last nine games.

The Bills will need another strong game from its defense to emerge with a victory. They held the Panthers to 275 total yards, sacked Cam Newton four times and intercepted him once. The Bills yield the fewest yards per game in the NFL, but they’ve been gouged by the run recently. Carolina amassed 151 yards on the ground last week and you know the Pats are going to try and establish a ground game. New England churned out 222 yards on the ground in the first meeting and won the game with Mac Jones throwing three passes.

New England Patriots

It’s amazing how one loss can disrupt the standings. The Pats won and covered in seven straight to seize control of the division and the top seed in the AFC. They also looked unbeatable with a defense that allowed 13 points or less in six of those wins. The winning streak came to an end on Saturday with a 27-17 loss to the Colts, and the Pats also dropped in the conference standings. They can win the division by beating Buffalo and having Miami lose on Monday night. They can also fall behind the Bills with a loss since they don’t have the tie-breaker on their side.

You don’t expect the Patriots to be as undisciplined as they were against the Colts. Uncharacteristic mistakes, penalties and turnovers put them in a deep hole. The 27 points allowed were the most since an overtime loss to Dallas in Week 6 and the third-highest amount surrendered all year. After throwing just three passes in a win over the Bills in Week 13, Mac Jones threw the ball 45 times against the Colts. The Pats are 0-3 when Jones attempts 40 or more passes in a game. New England would rather control the game on the ground and use its top-ranked defense to stymie opponents, just like they did a few weeks ago.

Prediction: Buffalo Bills +3 and UNDER 43.5

Bills vs Patriots Prediction

I don’t expect the Pats to make as many mistakes as they did in Saturday’s loss. One thing they can’t do is get behind early since Jones hasn’t proven he could lead a comeback. I also want to believe the Bills have overcome their inconsistencies and they’ll have to be much stronger in the trenches. If Allen is healed from the foot injury that’s been bothering him he could stretch the D setting up more chances. I see another low-scoring affair which is why I’m taking the points.

Prediction: Buffalo Bills +3 and UNDER 43.5

View NFL Week 16 betting lines.