Buffalo Bills vs Saints Predictions | NFL Week 12


The Thanksgiving Day football feast concludes when the Buffalo Bills visit the New Orleans Saints on Thursday night. Both teams are in desperate need of a victory as the losses continue to pile up. The Bills lost their grip on first place in the AFC East following their 41-15 setback to Indianapolis on Sunday, their second in three games.

They also fell behind the Patriots atop the division standings. The Saints’ skid hit three with a 40-29 loss to Philadelphia dropping them to 5-5 on the year. Buffalo hit the board as a 4-point favorite for this rare interconference matchup.

The Week 12 game between the Buffalo Bills and New Orleans Saints will take place at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, LA at 8:20 p.m. ET on Thursday, November 25 and will be televised on NBC.

The Week 12 game between the Buffalo Bills and New Orleans Saints will take place at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, LA at 8:20 p.m. ET on Thursday, November 25 and will be televised on NBC.

Buffalo Bills vs New Orleans Saints Odds

Buffalo Bills -4 | New Orleans Saints +4 [BET NOW]

Buffalo Bills vs New Orleans Saints Over/Under

Over/Under 46 [BET NOW]

Odds Analysis

Despite their recent struggles the Bills surfaced as a 4-point road favorite. Laying 7-points to the Colts on Sunday, they were hammered 41-15, their third ATS loss in five games with only one payout in that span. Buffalo is 1-2 SU and ATS in its last three road games, including an outright 9-6 setback in Jacksonville in Week 9.

The teams haven’t played since 2017 when the Saints extended their winning streak in the series to five with payouts in every contest. A lot has changed since then, most notably the quarterback position for both sides. The Saints were 4-0 ATS when catching points until Sunday when they fell in Philly as a 3-point dog. They’ve dropped three in a row and are now 5-5 SU and ATS. The total opened at 46, which would be the second-lowest for a Bills game this season.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills might be one of the top teams in the AFC, but right now they aren’t even the top team in their division. It’s been an unsettling few weeks alternating losses and wins over the previous five games. It started with a loss at Tennessee when the Bills were favored by 6-points. They played solid football beating Miami and the Jets. However, sandwiched between those wins was a confounding, 9-6, loss to the Jags. The inconsistency is something we didn’t see last season and Josh Allen has reverted to the turnover-prone player he was a few years ago.

It’s not so much the fault of the offense, but the three lowest scoring games of the season came in losses. There was that touchdown-less effort against Jacksonville where Allen tossed two interceptions and the team committed three turnovers. Allen had another two picks and the Bills turned the ball over four times on Sunday resulting in the second-lowest scoring game of the year.

Hopefully it’s a one-time thing for the defense. The Bills have been so good on that side of the football all season that even after giving up 370 yards and 41 points to the Colts they rank first in total defense and second in points allowed. They do need to take better care of the football and that starts with Allen.

New Orleans Saints

For years the Saints never had to worry about their quarterback. Now that Drew Brees has retired the search continues. The situation probably would have been fine had Jameis Winston not been injured. The former No. 1 overall pick was having a good season and the Saints were 5-2 following their win over the defending champion Bucs in Week 8. That’s also the game Winston was lost for the year with a knee injury.

With Trevor Siemian at the helm the Saints have yet to win going 0-3. Since taking over for Winston in the Tampa game he’s completed less than 57 percent of his passes for 920 yards. He hadn’t thrown an interception until tossing two on Sunday, including a pick-six that put his team in a deep hole late in the first half. The offense was also impacted by the absence of Alvin Kamara and starting linemen Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk. The status of those players on a short week remains unknown.

Like Buffalo, the Saints defense was gouged last week. The No. 1 unit against the run allowed 242 yards on 50 carries and three touchdowns. Three different Eagles ran for more than 60 yards with Jalen Hurts going for 69 yards and all three scores. The Saints better figure things out soon with another mobile quarterback in Allen paying a visit. The Saints have allowed an average of 30 points during their losing streak cashing the OVER in all three and four straight overall.

Predictions: Buffalo Bills -4 and OVER 46

Bills vs Saints Predictions

If anything it should be an exciting game. The Bills have responded well to losses going 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 ATS while outscoring teams 106-28 following their first three defeats, and it’s been a full year since they dropped consecutive games. As much as I like the Saints they just aren’t the same without Brees and there’s a reason why Siemian is a will traveled vet.

Predictions: Buffalo Bills -4 and OVER 46

View all NFL Week 12 betting odds here.