I wanted to go out with a bang last week, but instead my plays went out with a dud. I was winless for the second time in three weeks, as all three of my plays lost on Rivalry Week. That has me reeling heading into Championship Week, but at least I’m guaranteed to finish in the black this season as I’m hitting 55.5 percent of my plays this year.
Missouri failed to cover the 12.5 points against Arkansas in a game where the line moved considerably in my favor. That’s because starting quarterback Kelly Bryant didn’t suit up for the Tigers, and backup Connor Bazelak tore his ACL early in the second quarter. Iowa let a 24-10 halftime lead slip away and needed a last second field goal to beat Nebraska, and South Carolina failed to cover 27 points at home against Clemson.
Week 1: 2-2 ATS
Week 2: 2-1 ATS
Week 3: 3-1 ATS
Week 4: 2-1 ATS
Week 5: 1-4 ATS
Week 6: 3-0 ATS
Week 7: 2-1 ATS
Week 8: 3-0 ATS
Week 9: 3-0 ATS
Week 10: 1-1-1 ATS
Week 11: 1-2 ATS
Week 12: 0-3 ATS
Week 13: 2-1 ATS
Week 14: 0-3 ATS
YTD Record 25-20-1 ATS
College Football Championship Games⤵️#Oregon +6.5#Utah -6.5#Georgia +7#LSU -7#Miami Ohio +6.5#Central Michigan -6.5#Baylor+9#Oklahoma -9#UAB +7.5#FAU -7.5#Wisconsin +17#Ohio State -17#Virginia +28.5#Clemson -28.5
— Official Bookmaker (@bookmaker_eu) December 2, 2019
Pick: Utah -6.5 vs. Oregon
Much of the value is gone in this game, but I still like the Utes to earn the cover and win their first ever Pac 12 Championship. Utah opened as a 2.5-point favorite over Oregon per the college football betting odds, but that line didn’t last long, quickly moving to seven points before receding back to where it currently sits.
The Ducks’ defense is not what we thought it was in mid-October. Opponents have had success moving the ball against Oregon over the last half of the season, and Utah should be able to impose its will with its run game. The Utes run the ball better than any other team in the Pac 12 with Zack Moss, and he is averaging 6.2 YPC. His success will open things up for Tyler Huntley. Huntley is averaging 11.1 YPA, and he has been very efficient in the passing game.
Utah has the best run defense in the country, and that will make Oregon one-dimensional. Justin Herbert has the arm talent to beat Utah’s secondary, but I don’t think he has the necessary weapons at receiver.
Pick: Memphis -9 vs. Cincinnati
We just saw this game last week, and Memphis won 34-24. That led to the oddsmakers lining this game by the exact score from last Saturday, but some sharp action has moved this line down to nine points.
Ben Bryant started ahead of Desmond Ridder in the last game, but don’t be surprised to see Ridder get the nod here. He is the more experienced quarterback, and Luke Fickell might give him the nod after Bryant threw two interceptions and fumbled three times last week.
While Cincinnati’s offense will improve, I think Memphis will score even more points this week. The Tigers jumped out to a 17-3 first quarter lead against the Bearcats before the offense started sputtering last Saturday, and I think Justin Fuente will fix those problems.
Pick: Georgia +7 vs. LSU
This is my favorite bet of Championship Week. Everyone is in love with LSU. The Tigers have been the story of the season, they have the Heisman Trophy winner, and they already have a spot in the College Football Playoff. That led to the college football betting odds rising from LSU -4 to LSU -7 on Saturday, and the value in Georgia is too much to pass up.
The Bulldogs have the best defense in the nation. No team has scored more than 20 points on Georgia all year, and Kirby Smart has been preparing for this LSU offense since the Bulldogs beat Texas A&M. He has playmakers at every position, and this team can keep the ball out of Joe Burrow’s hands.
LSU has been susceptible to power running games, and that’s the one thing Georgia does well on offense. The Bulldogs love to grind out first downs and wear down defensive fronts, giving this team a significant edge in its bid to make the CFP.
Check out the latest college football betting lines for week 15