Just when Bernie Sanders was written off as dead, the senator from Vermont pulled off the most shocking political victory ever witnessed in the United States and won the Michigan Democratic Primary after being behind in the polls by 21 points. Now the question is whether or not he can keep that momentum going forward to the 2016 election, with crucial states like Florida, Ohio, Illinois, and Missouri on the docket next week.
What About Hillary Clinton?
Hillary Clinton was considered to have a 99 percent chance to win the Michigan Democratic Primary, according to the website FiveThirtyEight and prediction markets alike. However, her stunning defeat raises the question of whether or not this was a one-time fluke or if there is an endemic problem with polling and/or support going forward.
The results in places with similar demographics like Illinois and Ohio, where Clinton holds big leads in the polls as well, will tell us whether or not this will become a race again or if it was just Sanders’ last hurrah in the Democratic primaries. Right now, Sanders’ odds aren’t looking great.
Let’s Take a Look at the Republican Candidates
Marco Rubio’s campaign is in a tailspin after failing to meet the threshold to win any candidates on Tuesday. At this point, his entire campaign rests on defeating Donald Trump in his home state of Florida on March 15. Trump is a -310 betting favorite to win the state at BookMaker.eu, but even an upset win for Rubio may be too little too late.
The title of establishment candidate now belongs to John Kasich’s campaign and even though Rubio may perform better after Florida in the Republican primaries in less conservative states, Kasich looks to have supplanted him and there will be calls for Rubio to bow out.
The Trump odds are +180 to win Ohio at this stage, while the field is -230 to win the state. The field in the Buckeye State virtually equates to Kasich, who has pinned his campaign’s hopes on winning the state he governs. Trump is currently three points ahead of Kasich in the polls, but he has underperformed in many polls thus far and late-deciders tend to not vote for him.
When it comes to Ohio, though, betting on Trump is a solid play at +180. Kasich and Rubio are both on the ropes and defeats in both their home states may cause them to pull out of the race. Trump knows this and is actually spending some of his own money on campaign ads in those two states to try to narrow the race to just he and Ted Cruz.
Trump is a -285 favorite to be the Republican nominee and those odds are sure to rise if he can win both Florida and Ohio. Trump is highly unlikely to win a brokered convention and a one on one against Cruz is one that he can definitely win, especially with more liberal state primaries on the horizon.
The hope for Cruz at this point is to have a brokered convention and hold the second-most delegates behind Trump. Cruz is not well-liked by the Republican establishment either, but he’s no Trump and that would give him a lot of support in the case of a brokered convention.
Cruz is +525 to be the Republican nominee, but needs Kasich and/or Rubio to stay in the race at least another month to get to a brokered convention in all likelihood.
So Who’s Leading the 2016 Presidential Race?
At the end of the day, even with the surprising loss in Michigan, Clinton upped her delegate count on Sanders, thanks to a huge win in Mississippi, and barring something truly stunning, will be the Democratic nominee.
With the Republicans hopelessly divided, Clinton, at -225 at BookMaker.eu, has great value to be elected POTUS, as the only two Republicans that can beat her in a general election, Kasich and Rubio, are well behind Trump and Cruz in the Republican delegate count.
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