After winning 13 regular season games and reaching the AFC Championship last season, expectations are at an all-time high for the 2021 Buffalo Bills. They locked up rocket-arm quarterback Josh Allen, who led the team to a franchise record 501 points, and it only looks like he’s getting better. He and the rest of the club will have to be at its finest every week, though, since the Bills are now the hunted.
We still don’t know what to expect from Allen. Is he one of the best players at his position or did the planets align for him and the Bills last season? It’ll take a few more seasons of playing at a high level to include him among the best and we’ll see if he can deliver again. Buffalo exceeded its projected win total on nine last season and oddsmakers have them as one of the top teams in the NFL with a 2021 win total of 10.5.
Buffalo Bills 2021 Regular Season Win Total Odds
Bills Over 10.5 Wins -167
Bills Under 10.5 Wins +141
(Odds provided by BookMaker.eu on August 9, 2021)
Management knew they had something in Allen and it took pairing him with Stefon Diggs to release the beast. Allen’s numbers skyrocketed across the board and the Bills were one of the most feared offensive teams in the NFL a season ago. We’re not talking about a slight increase either. Allen completed nearly 70 percent of his passes after compiling a percentage of just over 56 in his first two seasons. He also threw more touchdown passes in 2020 than he did in the previous two years combined.
Diggs was the beneficiary in the passing game posting 127 catches for 1,535 yards and eight touchdowns. Cole Beasley had a career-high 82 receptions and Gabe Davis has the speed on the outside to stretch the field. The passing game was one of the best in the NFL last season and should be again as long as Allen doesn’t regress.
Teams would like to have a balanced attack but that wasn’t the case for the Bills last year since they were so effective throwing the football. Still, getting more from Devin Singletary and Zack Moss would be helpful. The two combined for just over 1,000 yards last season and they totaled two fewer rushing scores than Allen. It’s hard to expect Allen putting up better numbers in 2021 and even matching his output from a season ago is going to be difficult.
If that is the case the Buffalo defense will have to be better than it was. They were a top-three unit in 2019 before falling to the middle of the pack last year. They do get two key members back, though, with Star Lotulelei bolstering the interior and Matt Milano at the second level. There’s really no reason why the defense can’t be a top unit once again.
2021 Buffalo Bills Schedule
Week 1: vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday, September 12, 1 p.m. ET
Week 2: at Miami Dolphins, Sunday, September 19, 1 p.m. ET
Week 3: vs. Washington Football Team, Sunday, September 26, 1 p.m. ET
Week 4: vs. Houston Texans, Sunday, October 3, 1 p.m. ET
Week 5: at Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday, October 10, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Week 6: at Tennessee Titans, Monday, October 18, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Week 7: BYE
Week 8: vs. Miami Dolphins, Sunday, October 31, 1 p.m. ET
Week 9: at Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday, November 7, 1 p.m. ET
Week 10: at New York Jets, Sunday, November 14, 1 p.m. ET
Week 11: vs. Indianapolis Colts, Sunday, November 21, 1 p.m. ET
Week 12: at New Orleans Saints, Thursday, November 25, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Week 13: vs. New England Patriots, Monday, December 6, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Week 14: at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday, December 12, 4:25 p.m. ET
Week 15: vs. Carolina Panthers, Sat./Sun., December 18/19, TBA
Week 16: at New England Patriots, Sunday, December 26, 1 p.m. ET
Week 17: vs. Atlanta Falcons, Sunday, January 2, 1 p.m. ET
Week 18: vs. New York Jets, Sunday, January 9, 1 p.m. ET
Everything came together for the Bills last season. Brady’s departure from New England opened the AFC East and Buffalo took advantage. There are a lot of questions among the other division teams making the Bills the favorite to win another division title. The Pats need an answer at QB, the Jets are the Jets and Miami came along faster than everyone expected. It won’t be easy but the Bills need to handle things within the division and they definitely have the horses to do that.
The schedule looks favorable especially with their last four games against the Panthers, Patriots, Falcons and Jets, four teams that missed the playoffs in 2020. They open against the Steelers and Dolphins and have road games at Kansas City and Tennessee ahead of their Week 7 bye. After that a Week 14 tilt with the Super Bowl champion Buccaneers stands out as the biggest test.
Buffalo Bills Season Win Total Prediction
Our pick: Buffalo Bills OVER 10.5 Wins
After last season and the progression leading up to it, the Bills have seemingly arrived as one of the top teams in the NFL. There still is the question whether Allen has arrived or his 2020 season was an outlier. Still, even with a little regression the offense should be strong and the defense will be better with some key players back. I actually thought we’d see the win total a little higher since 12 victories looks like a minimum. That has me all over the OVER in this futures market.
View the latest NFL betting odds.