LSU Tigers vs Alabama Crimson Tide Predictions


The bye week came at a good time for the LSU Tigers, who were so banged up they couldn’t even practice. How they look Saturday when they take on the Alabama Crimson Tide remains to be seen, but oddsmakers aren’t giving the Tigers much of a chance having positioned them as a four-touchdown underdog.

Bama recovered nicely from its upset loss at Texas AM winning both games since by a combined score of 101-33. The Tide has won nine of the past 10 meetings in this rivalry going 6-3-1 ATS.

The Week 10 college football game between the LSU Tigers and Alabama Crimson Tide will take place at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, AL at 7:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, October 30, 2021 and will be televised on ESPN.

The Week 10 college football game between the LSU Tigers and Alabama Crimson Tide will take place at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, AL at 7:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, October 30, 2021 and will be televised on ESPN.

LSU Tigers vs Alabama Crimson Tide Odds

LSU Tigers +28 | Alabama Crimson Tide -28 [BET NOW]

Over/Under 66 [BET NOW]

Odds Analysis

The high of upsetting Florida as a 12.5-point underdog a few weeks ago quickly subsided when the Tigers lost 31-17 at Ole Miss in Week 8, failing to cover the 9-point line in that game. Catching 28 points on the line this week marks the fourth straight game as a dog with a record of 1-2 SU and ATS in the previous three. The line is big but not the biggest recently in the series. LSU got 28.5 points on the closing line in last year’s game and failed to cover in a 55-17 beating. The Tigers have dropped nine of the previous 10 series meetings.

Facing large spreads is commonplace for the Tide. They’ve been favored by at least two touchdowns in every game this season with the spread more than 20 points three times. They are 2-1 ATS in those games, including a 63-14 win over Southern Miss in Week 4 when laying 45-points. Bama covered in four of the past five games and is 5-3 ATS overall. To cover such large spreads the offense has to be good. Alabama is No. 2 nationally in points per game allowing them to cash the OVER in five of eight games.

LSU Tigers

On paper this is another mismatch. The Tigers were so banged up heading into their bye that they couldn’t field enough players to practice. The off week surely helped but the club will be minus some quality personnel. There is an x-factor in play for LSU the remainder of the season.

Coach Ed Orgeron will not be back next season and is playing out the string because he wanted to “finish out” the season. Coach O has the respect of his players and his departure could be a rallying cry. While that makes for great theatrics, it doesn’t always translate in the real world.

You still need the horses and the Tigers are just decimated. The offense line is a mess forcing Max Johnson into one of his worst games at Ole Miss. Johnson threw for 146 yards with an interception and was replaced by Garrett Nussmeier in the second half. LSU needs to make something happen offensively to keep the defense off the field. The group has allowed an average of 38.3 points over the last three games and surrenders 28.8 points and 410 yards per game for the season.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Things are going smoothly for the Tide, who recovered from their lone loss of the season to beat Mississippi State 49-9 and Tennessee 52-24 covering the closing line in both games. They are 4-1 ATS over their last five outings winning those four contests by an average of 34.5 points. With so much talent of offense leaving after last year’s national championship run you’d expect a dropoff in production. Alabama doesn’t rebuild, though, it just reloads.

He’s not getting much in terms of Heisman Trophy recognition, but Bryce Young is having an outstanding season. He’s thrown for 2,453 yards completing 70 percent of his passes with 26 touchdowns and only three interceptions for the second highest scoring team in the country.

It’s hard to say there’s been a decline on defense, but when the bar is set so high ranking 13th in total yards allowed feels like a failure. The group has been more than good enough, though, to put the team in a position to win every week. Bama has won 41 of its last 42 games at home with the lone setback in that stretch to LSU in 2019. Since then the Tide is 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS at Bryant-Denny Stadium.

Prediction: Alabama Crimson Tide -28 and OVER 66

LSU vs Alabama Prediction

It’s hard to pass on a four-touchdown spread, but this game has a chance to get out of control quickly for LSU. The Tigers have been unable to stop opponents and Bama’s high-powered offense could have a big day. And you know Nick Saban isn’t going to take his foot off the gas. It’s up to LSU to keep the game close and given their injury situation it’s hard to see that happen.

Prediction: Alabama Crimson Tide -28 and OVER 66

View all Week 10 college football odds here.