Michigan State Spartans vs Ohio State Buckeyes Predictions

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The Ohio State Buckeyes control their own destiny for another Big Ten East title. They hold a slight edge over the Michigan State Spartans in the standings, and although the records are similar with each team at 9-1, oddsmakers favor the Buckeyes to win their 29th straight conference game.

An upset loss to Purdue a few weeks ago dimmed MSU’s hopes of a division title. There is a slim chance Sparty can claim the crown, but they need to get past OSU to get there, something they haven’t done in the past five meetings. And OSU is a 19-point favorite to extend its winning streak in the series.

The Week 12 college football game between the Michigan State Spartans and Ohio State Buckeyes will take place at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, OH at 12 p.m. ET on Saturday, November 20, 2021 and will be televised on ABC.

The Week 12 college football game between the Michigan State Spartans and Ohio State Buckeyes will take place at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, OH at 12 p.m. ET on Saturday, November 20, 2021 and will be televised on ABC.

Michigan State Spartans vs Ohio State Buckeyes Odds

Michigan State Spartans +19 | Ohio State Buckeyes -19 [BET NOW]

Michigan State vs Ohio State Over/Under

Over/Under 68 [BET NOW]

Odds Analysis

Sparty bounced back from its lone loss of the season to drub Maryland 40-21 last week, covering the 11.5-point closing line. It was their fifth payout in the last six games and the Spartans have been one of the best to their backers going 7-1-2 ATS. The upset loss to Purdue in Week 8 ended the run for a perfect season, something few saw coming.

MSU hasn’t had an effect on oddsmakers, though, since they are positioned as a 19-point underdog. The Spartans have struggled to score against OSU’s defense managing no more than 17 points in any of the previous six meetings. The UNDER is 6-1 in that span.

After a couple of close calls the Buckeyes exploded in last week’s 59-31 cover win over Purdue, ending a 2-game ATS losing skid. OSU closed as a favorite of at least two converted touchdowns in every game and is 5-4-1 ATS on the year.

The nation’s No. 1 ranked scoring offense has helped OSU cash the OVER in six of 10 games this year. OSU is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in its last five games with MSU with four games having a spread of at least 17 points. The total opened at 68, the highest in the last 20 games between the clubs.

Michigan State Spartans

A number of the so-called experts had the Spartans finishing at the bottom of the league standings. That shows you how much they know. An upset loss to Purdue in Week 10 seriously impacted MSU’s chances of winning the East Division and the only way they can get to the Big Ten title game is by winning on Saturday. That we’re even talking about them having a chance at this point in the season is rather remarkable.

The defense will have to play its best game of the season to have a chance on Saturday. The Spartans have been unable to defend the pass most of the season allowing 329.4 yards per game to rank 130th. They have been good against the run, but when teams have so much success throwing the ball why hand it off. The group has been stingy when it counts, though, allowing an average of just 22.5 points. It will have a tough test against OSU’s top ranked scoring unit.

Ohio State Buckeyes

OSU could be hard pressed to match what it’s done to Sparty in the last six meetings. The Buckeyes have not conceded more than 17 points in those games holding MSU to an average of 10.7 points. Somehow they lost a game in that span with MSU posting a 17-14 win in Columbus during the 2015 campaign.

Over the past four meetings the Buckeyes outscored MSU 160-31. And we could expect more fireworks on Saturday. The offense regained its swagger with a 59-31 win over Purdue, matching the point total from the previous two games combined. C.J. Stroud tossed five touchdown passes and Buckeyes had 45 points at halftime.

There is a reason why the total is the highest in a game between these teams in at least 20 years: both have had difficulties on defense. OSU allowed 485 total yards last week and yields nearly 370 yards per game. The Buckeyes allow an average of over 261 yards to rank 108th against the pass. The offense has made up for the shortcomings on defense, though. They’ve scored more than 50 points in a game five times and lead the nation in scoring and total offense.

Prediction: Ohio State Buckeyes -19 and OVER 68

Michigan State at Ohio State

I would have liked Sparty a lot more if they were playing at home. Instead, they play their biggest game of the season in a hostile environment against a team that moves and scores the football seemingly at will. If MSU can get torched for 536 passing yards by Purdue’s Aiden O’Connell, imagine what Stroud and his stable of receivers will do. That, and the fact that Ohio State has the all-around better team, has me leaning toward a big home cover. And points should be plenty.

Prediction: Ohio State Buckeyes -19 and OVER 68

View Week 12 college football odds here.