Monday Night Football | Dolphins vs Saints Predictions

You don’t often see teams endure lengthy streaks during the course of an NFL season and still qualify for the playoffs. But that’s the situation on Monday Night Football when the Miami Dolphins visit the New Orleans Saints. Miami dropped six straight after winning its opener and the Saints endured a five-game slide.

Both have made up for their skid by rattling off multiple wins. The Dolphins are riding a six-game winning streak that has them on the cusp of a playoff spot while the Saints have won two straight since their slide. With an unstable quarterback situation in New Orleans, the Dolphins moved to slight road favorite on the Week 16 NFL betting line.

Miami Dolphins vs New Orleans Saints Date & Time

The Week 16 Monday Night Football game between the Miami Dolphins and New Orleans Saints will take place at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, LA IL at 8:15 p.m. ET on December 27 and will be televised on ESPN.

Miami Dolphins vs New Orleans Saints Odds

Miami Dolphins -2 | New Orleans Saints +2 [BET NOW]

Miami Dolphins vs New Orleans Saints Over/Under

Over/Under 37.5 [BET NOW]

Odds Analysis

We saw the Saints as a 3-point favorite when the line came out over the weekend. However, news of the roster issues changed things quickly with some shops taking the game off the board. The Saints are expected to start a rookie QB and the action tilted heavily in favor of the Dolphins, who are now a 2-point favorite.

We also saw the total take a tumble with a couple of points whacked off the original number. The total now stands at 37.5, which would be the lowest in any game for either side this season. Strong defense can do that and both sides have been playing really well on that side of the football.

Miami Dolphins

Just about two months ago we didn’t envision the Dolphins in the thick of the AFC playoff race. It’s strange how things can change so rapidly. Following a 26-11 loss to Buffalo on Halloween, the Fins were 1-6 SU and 1-5-1 ATS. They did face some pretty good teams in that stretch, but they also lost to Jacksonville and Atlanta. The schedule eased up a bit and the Dolphins found their footing starting with a 17-9 win over Houston in Week 9.

They haven’t lost since and currently own the second-longest current win streak in the NFL. When I say the schedule eased up I mean it really eased up. On top of Houston the Fins also beat the Jets twice, the Giants and Carolina. Their only win over a team currently with a winning record was against Baltimore.

Strong play from the defense helped the surge. In four of the first five wins of the streak the Fins held their opponent to 10 points or less. Last week’s contest required the offense to do some work and Tua Tagovailoa delivered. Trailing by 10 points twice in the first half, the Dolphins overcame the deficit taking their first lead on a Tua scoring dart. Tagovailoa nearly gave the game away with a pick-six midway through the fourth that tied the game. But he delivered with a scoring pass to Devonta Parker in the closing minutes for the 31-24 decision.

New Orleans Saints

Since we teased it in the opener I guess an explanation about the QB spot is in order. And it’s a pretty big deal. The Saints are expected to put Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian on the COVID list leaving them with Ian Book as the only QB on the active roster or practice squad. If the reports are confirmed Book is in line to get his first career start while taking the field for the first time during a regular season game.

Book had a marvelous career at Notre Dame posting the most wins by a starter in program history. And he’s not completely unfamiliar with the offense since he’s been on the active roster all season. Book did play in one game during the preseason so the transition should be smooth.

Like the Dolphins we’ve seen a strong New Orleans defense the last two weeks leading to pair of victories. Those came after a five-game slide that had the Saints’ playoff hopes in tatters. They didn’t score a touchdown last week, but the D frustrated Tom Brady holding him to just 214 yards passing on 48 attempts with an interception and four sacks. The result was a 9-0 victory. Winning at home would help their playoff chances. The Saints have just victory inside the Superdome going 1-4 SU and ATS.

Prediction: New Orleans Saints +2 and OVER 37.5

Dolphins at Saints Predictions

Playing a road game is a foreign concept for the Dolphins with four of their previous five in South Beach. They beat the Jets in their last road game but overall they’re just 2-4 SU and 3-2-1 ATS. The Saints haven’t been any better at home and not many are giving them a chance with a rookie QB expected to be at the helm. They are playing well defensively and Book won’t have to do too much, which is why I’m backing the home team. And the total is just too darn low.

Prediction: New Orleans Saints +2 and OVER 37.5

View NFL Week 16 betting lines.