After an early surge of high scoring this season, the NFL oddsmakers did a great job of moving up their lines and getting “unders” to hit. They have a good feel of the teams at this point in the year and the totals should be accurately pegged. However, there are always circumstances going into games that should give bettors confidence in choosing one side or the other.
Here are the best over/under scoring total plays of Week 11 in the NFL season:
Dallas Cowboys vs Atlanta Falcons
The pick: OVER 48.5
The Dallas Cowboys are hitting the road this week for a matchup with the Atlanta Falcons. The teams have differing styles, as Dallas likes to play ball control offense and run the ball while the Falcons are happy to air it out. Atlanta is at home and the three-point favorite, which means it will likely be able to dictate this game. Take the “over” on the 48.5 total as Dallas will need to throw more than hoped. The Cowboys recently added wide receiver Amari Cooper which is another reason to take that side of the total as he is going to help open up the offense this week and into the future.
Los Angeles Rams vs Kansas City Chiefs
The pick: OVER 63.5
The contest between the Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City Chiefs has a huge scoring total of 63.5 points, which isn’t a surprise considering these are two of the best offenses in recent history. The Rams’ defense has a tendency to make big plays but can also give up yards. The Chiefs’ defense is poor so there won’t be too much resistance for the Rams’ Jared Goff or Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes as they light things up. Even though the scoring total is high, don’t be scared off by it. This game will be similar to the shootout the Rams just played in against the Saints. Take the “over” in this matchup.
Houston Texans vs Washington Redskins
The pick: UNDER 42.5
The Houston Texans are traveling to face the Washington Redskins this weekend and will be the slight favorites. While Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson is a dynamic talent, both of these teams will be content to get into a defensive slugfest. The scoring total for this matchup is set at 42.5 points but that is too high. Take the “under” for this showdown.
Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans
The pick: UNDER 49
The Indianapolis Colts’ offense has been on fire lately and will aim to continue that trend, but get a tough matchup this week against the surging Tennessee Titans. The Titans allow the fewest points in the NFL on the season and are coming off a very impressive performance against the New England Patriots. Colts quarterback Andrew Luck has done a fantastic job and looks back to form after some serious shoulder injuries threatened to derail his career. The Colts wouldn’t mind getting into a shootout, but the Titans are very ground-oriented and like to shorten games. The scoring total of 49 seems too high. Take the “under” in this contest.
Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings
The pick: OVER 44.5
The best scoring total of Week 11 comes from an NFC North clash that could help determine who wins the division down the road. The upstart Chicago Bears are hosting the Minnesota Vikings in a game with big implications. The teams both have solid defenses and thus the scoring total is listed at 44.5 points. However, that number is not giving enough credit to the offenses, which each boast a lot of talent and a pair of quarterbacks in Chicago’s Mitchell Trubisky and Minnesota’s Kirk Cousins who are playing well.
If this season has proven anything, it’s that high-powered offenses tend to get the best of strong defenses. With that in mind, look for this game to have more points than the oddsmakers project. Roll with the “over” in this one as the best bet of the week.
Check out NFL week 11 betting odds and game totals.