It just isn’t my year. I’ve posted losing records in nine of 12 weeks so far in 2019, and that has me deep in the hole just before Black Friday. Cincinnati was a shrewd pick last week, but Denver and Atlanta were both losers. The Broncos did nothing against Buffalo’s defense as Brandon Allen had an awful game, while Jameis Winston torched Atlanta’s secondary to beat the Falcons.
I’m hoping to turn around my luck the last five weeks of the regular season, but I don’t blame you if you decide to fade me instead. No matter whether you tail or fade though, Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours this holiday season!
Week 1: 1-2 ATS
Week 2: 0-3 ATS
Week 3: 1-2 ATS
Week 4: 2-3 ATS
Week 5: 2-1 ATS
Week 6 : 0-2-1 ATS
Week 7: 2-1 ATS
Week 8: 1-2 ATS
Week 9: 1-2 ATS
Week 10: 2-1 ATS
Week 11: 1-2 ATS
Week 12: 1-2 ATS
Overall: 14-23-1 ATS
#NFL Odds – Week 13 Wiseguy Picks?
The NFL regular season is hitting its stretch run, and by now bettors have a great idea of which teams are contenders and which teams are already looking forward to 2020.
— Official Bookmaker (@bookmaker_eu) November 29, 2019
NFL Week 13 Best Bets (Sunday, December 1)
Jacksonville Jaguars +2 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Winston had a great performance last week, but inconsistency has been the young quarterback’s trademark throughout his career. He is more turnover prone than any other quarterback in the NFL over the last five years by a considerable margin, and Jacksonville has a ball-hawking defense that can capitalize.
In 67 games with Tampa Bay, Winston has thrown 78 interceptions and fumbled 30 times. He has already thrown 20 interceptions this season through 11 games, and he has fumbled eight times. Those 28 turnovers are the most by any quarterback in the league this year by a massive amount.
Nick Foles has been solid since returning to the lineup for Jacksonville, giving the Jaguars a competent quarterback after Gardner Minshew II struggled mightily in his last few starts. I expect Foles to carve up this subpar secondary, while Winston gifts the Jacksonville at least two turnovers to give the Jaguars an outright win as a home underdog.
New York Jets -3 at Cincinnati Bengals
The New York Jets have looked great the last three weeks. This offense has found its stride with 34 points in each of the Jets’ last three games, and that has led to three straight victories for the team that was once thought to be the worst team in the league. Gang Green were the first team to lose to lowly Miami, but Adam Gase has lit a fire under the Jets since that defeat.
Cincinnati has decided to start Andy Dalton over Ryan Finley once again, but that isn’t likely to matter too much. The Bengals have one of the worst running games in the NFL, and the loss of their two top receivers has really hurt this offense. The Jets have the best run defense in the league, allowing 3.0 YPC this season, and that will really limit what Cincinnati can do in this area.
Sam Darnold has been fantastic over the last three weeks, and he should pick apart a pass defense that is dead last in the NFL on Sunday. Cincinnati is allowing 8.7 YPA to opposing quarterbacks this season.
Tennessee Titans +2 at Indianapolis Colts
Ryan Tannehill has been a significant upgrade over Marcus Mariota. Tannehill is averaging 1.8 YPA more than Mariota, and he has a quarterback rating almost 20 points higher than the quarterback he replaced. His play has given the Titans a spark, and they have won four of their last five games with Tannehill under center.
Meanwhile, the Colts have flatlined. Jacoby Brissett has not been too sharp in recent weeks, throwing for 277 yards in his last two starts, and Indianapolis has lost three of its last four games. The Colts’ only win in that stretch was against Jacksonville, and a loss to Miami shows what has happened to this offense.
The Titans have one of the most underrated defenses in the NFL, and they can stop the Colts’ ground game. If they can force Brissett to beat them with his arm, the Titans have a great chance of pulling off the upset.
Check out the latest NFL week 13 betting lines.