Going 1-2 has become something of a habit for me. I’ve finished the week 1-2 five times in the last six weeks, dropping my record and my bankroll in the process.
I was a sucker for betting on the Jets last week against the Bengals. Cincinnati’s defensive line dominated the line of scrimmage, flustering Sam Darnold throughout the game to get the Bengals their first win of the season. Nick Foles was incredibly ineffective before being benched in favor of Gardner Minshew II, and Jacksonville couldn’t come back after a rocky first half. My only winner was Tennessee against Indianapolis, and the red-hot Titans continue to impress.
Week 1: 1-2 ATS
Week 2: 0-3 ATS
Week 3: 1-2 ATS
Week 4: 2-3 ATS
Week 5: 2-1 ATS
Week 6 : 0-2-1 ATS
Week 7: 2-1 ATS
Week 8: 1-2 ATS
Week 9: 1-2 ATS
Week 10: 2-1 ATS
Week 11: 1-2 ATS
Week 12: 1-2 ATS
Week 13: 1-2 ATS
Overall: 15-25-1 ATS
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NFL Week 14 Best Bets (Sunday, December 8)
Buffalo vs. Baltimore Over 43
The weather is expected to be relatively balmy for Buffalo in December on Sunday, and that should lead to plenty of points being scored when the Bills host Baltimore.
Lamar Jackson is on his way to winning the NFL MVP. He is helping revolutionize the quarterback position, and both he and Mark Ingram should have great afternoons against the Bills’ front seven. Buffalo is surrendering 4.5 YPC, and Baltimore has the best running game in the league. That ground game had success in terrible weather against San Francisco last week, and the Ravens should be even more effective this week.
Meanwhile, Buffalo is great at manufacturing points. Sean McDermott is one of the sharpest coaches in the league, and he will find ways for Josh Allen to exploit Baltimore’s defense. The Ravens are conceding 5.6 yards per play, ranking in the bottom half of the NFL.
Minnesota Vikings -12.5 vs. Detroit Lions
The Lions have the rest advantage after playing on Thanksgiving, but they are starting the relatively untested David Blough at quarterback. Blough played well against Chicago in his debut, yet we have seen that more and more from young quarterbacks. Defensive coordinators adapt as soon as they see tape on a young passer, and the second time out usually goes a lot worse.
Detroit has one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Lions are the only team that has made Mitch Trubisky look like a star, and Kirk Cousins dismantled this secondary the last time these teams faced off. He completed 24 of 34 passes for 338 yards and four touchdowns, while Dalvin Cook had a banner day too. Cook ran 25 times for 142 yards and two scores, helping the Vikings win 42-30 in the Motor City.
Minnesota is going to score at will against this defense. The Lions are conceding 6.0 yards per play, and they can’t win a shootout with Matt Stafford still injured. This is a game Minnesota must win to continue to control its playoff destiny, so the Vikes will leave no doubt.
Los Angeles Rams +1 vs. Seattle Seahawks
I’ll jump at the chance to take the Rams in this spot. For all their troubles, they should have beat Seattle in the Emerald City earlier this season, so I’ll grab the Rams as a slight home underdog on Sunday night.
Jared Goff had his best performance of the year last week against Arizona, and the Rams appear to have found something that works along the offensive line. Many of their problems can be boiled down to their struggles running the football, but Todd Gurley II and Malcolm Brown have had some success moving the chains in recent weeks.
Seattle is the most smoke and mirrors team in the NFL. The Seahawks have been incredibly fortunate with an absurd winning percentage in one score games, and they only have a +36 point differential despite being 10-2. Only one of their victories has been by more than one score, so the Rams are a great teaser pick too.
Check out the latest NFL Week 14 betting lines.