At least I wasn’t a complete loser in my first week of betting the NFL this season. I made the mistake of thinking that Mitchell Trubisky was ready to turn a corner (he wasn’t), but that wasn’t my biggest blunder of the opening week. I thought that Jameis Winston would put up Aaron Brooks’ style numbers against the 49ers, but while he gifted San Francisco with two pick sixes, he failed to do much good for the Buccaneers. Although Tampa Bay led the league in passing yards last season, he ended Sunday with less than 200 yards through the air in a game that went under the total by 2.5 points.
My only winner was Tennessee, and the Titans destroyed Cleveland in Week 1. The Browns collapsed on offense in the second half, allowing a close game to become a rout. Let’s hope for more of those easy winners this week.
Week 1 record: 1-2 ATS
NFL Week 2 Best Bets (Sunday, September 15)
Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers
The pick: Bengals -1.5
The team that surprised me the most with its Week 1 performance was Cincinnati. The Bengals were a team that myself and others had left for dead this season, but they nearly went into Seattle and knocked off the Seahawks. Andy Dalton looked sharp in the opener even though Cincy didn’t have AJ Green, and John Ross had a breakout performance.
Cincinnati’s defense was especially impressive on the afternoon. The Bengals held Seattle’s offense to just 233 total yards and 12 first downs in the game, and they could have even more success at home against a San Francisco offense that did not look sharp in Week 1 against Tampa Bay.
It’s not easy for West Coast teams to go east and play well, and it’s even harder when they are on the road for two consecutive weeks. San Francisco didn’t return home after its win over Tampa last Sunday, opting to go to Ohio instead, and that will have an effect.
Oakland Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5, O/U 53)
The pick: OVER 53
Alright, I’ll bite. Oakland’s offense looked good on Monday Night Football against Denver’s vaunted defense. Derek Carr was efficient and knew when to take shots in the passing game, averaging 10 yards per attempt against a Broncos secondary that is considered one of the best in the league. Louis Riddick’s opinion carries a lot of weight and his continued praise of Carr and Oakland’s offense has me believing in the Raiders…at least a little bit.
We all know what Kansas City’s offense can do. The Chiefs shredded Oakland’s defense last season, scoring a combined 75 points in their two meetings in 2018. Patrick Mahomes didn’t miss a beat after an MVP season in Week 1, and I don’t think Tyreek Hill’s injury will have a major impact. Sammy Watkins had a career day against Jacksonville, and Travis Kelce is the best tight end in the game. Kansas City drafted Mecole Hardman to fill in for Hill this season in case he was suspended too, and there is plenty of buzz surrounding the rookie.
Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots (-19)
The pick: Dolphins +19
This line is absurd. Miami might be tanking, but there’s no way the Dolphins should be a three-score underdog on the NFL betting line at home in Week 2. If the line closed at 19, they would be the second-biggest home underdog in NFL history, and the last time the Patriots were favored by this much on the road, they nearly lost outright.
That was back in 2007 when New England was carving up the league on its way to a 16-0 regular season. The Pats went into Baltimore for Monday Night Football as 18.5-point favorites per the NFL betting odds, and they needed a late touchdown to escape with a 27-24 victory over the 4-8 Ravens.
Miami is 10-7 at home against New England since 2002, and the south Florida heat seems to have an affect on the Patriots in September. That should lead to Miami keeping this within the number.
Check out the latest NFL Week 2 betting odds.
Check out NFL Week 1 best bet picks.