Every week there are several upsets in the NFL, as underdogs don’t just cover the spread but still win the games outright. There is no doubt plenty of underdogs will either grab the win on the moneyline or at least cover, but the trick is figuring out which are the best plays in Week 6. Luckily, we are here to help sort out the top underdog picks.
Cleveland Browns (-1) vs Los Angeles Chargers
The pick: Browns -1
The logic: The Cleveland Browns are a long way from last year’s winless record, as an improved defense and a promising rookie quarterback in Baker Mayfield has changed the tone. The Browns are at home this week but have a tough matchup against a strong Los Angeles Chargers team. Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers has been excellent this season but look for the Cleveland pass rush to give him issues. The Browns are only 1-point underdogs so it’s not a huge upset but they are the pick to come away with the win.
Chicago Bears (-3) vs Miami Dolphins
The pick: Bears -3
The logic: The Chicago Bears have been impressive this season but they still have an inconsistent second-year quarterback in Mitchell Trubisky. They have to play on the road this week against the Miami Dolphins. Miami can be had at +105 odds to cover a three-point spread, which means that number could be going up. Once it passes that number, jump in the Dolphins to cover as they should be able to keep this one within a field goal if not win outright. The Bears have a lot of solid players but an underwhelming day from Trubisky can torpedo their chances in a hurry.
Carolina Panthers (+1) vs Washington Redskins
The pick: Panthers +1
The logic: The Carolina Panthers are 1-point underdogs on the road against the Washington Redskins. The Saints showed last time out the flaws with Washington, and Carolina should continue to excel against the Redskins. This one won’t be a blowout but the Panthers should be favored. Quarterback Cam Newton and running back Christian McCaffrey are going to be a devastating 1-2 punch that the Washington defense is not going to be able to handle. The Panthers are looking like a playoff team and this spread is too low. Take them with confidence to win on the moneyline.
Denver Broncos (+7) vs Los Angeles Rams
The pick: Broncos +7
The logic: The Denver Broncos are 7-point underdogs in a faceoff against the unbeaten Los Angeles Rams. It is undoubtedly a tough matchup but Denver gets this game at home and a touchdown spread gives them quite a bit of breathing room. The Rams will likely win this matchup but the Broncos’ defense should be able to keep the game close enough to give Denver the cover.
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) vs New England Patriots
The pick: Chiefs -3.5
The logic: The best underdog pick of the week is the Kansas City Chiefs. They are going on the road to face off against the New England Patriots, and few teams win there, but the Chiefs are 5-0 and dominating on offense. This one should be an absolute shootout and it’s fair to wonder if Patrick Mahomes can handle the exposure of a game like this, but he has not fallen off thus far.
The Chiefs are 3.5-point favorites against the Patriots and they are the pick to cover. An even better play is Kansas City on the moneyline as it is the +160 underdog to pull the upset. It seems a bit scary to pick against the Patriots, especially now that Julian Edelman is back and Josh Gordon is getting more familiar with the playbook to give quarterback Tom Brady more receiving options. But the Chiefs have the superior weapons on offense and should be able to match any run New England goes on. This should be an incredible game and Kansas City is the pick.
Check out the latest NFL week 6 betting odds as of today.