In all my years of betting the NFL, this is my worst start. I have been atrocious this year, hitting less than a third of my plays and sportsbooks are considering adding new wings to their buildings as a result of my action. The Chargers were a horrible bet, losing outright to an outmatched rookie quarterback, and Baltimore could only score nine points in the final three quarters in a narrow win over Cincinnati. I should have won the ‘Over’ in Kansas City-Houston after the two teams combined to score 40 points in the first half, but the defenses rose up in the second half making that pick a push.
It’s time to mix things up now. I have been laying too much chalk on the wrong teams, so let’s adjust fire and try something .
NFL Week 7 Consensus Picks
NFL Week 7 Best Bets (Sunday, October 20)
Tennessee Titans (-2) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Our pick: Titans -2
The Chargers are one of the squarest teams on the board this Sunday. Tennessee is 2-4 this year, and many bettors are perplexed as to why the Titans are favored in this game. That has led to a lot of action on LA moneyline and the Chargers in a teaser, but I see Tennessee winning this game by double digits.
Tennessee has needed a shot in the arm, and the Titans are getting one in the form of Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill will be making his first start with the Titans, replacing the perpetually disappointing Marcus Mariota. The former Dolphins quarterback has plenty of experience, and he will exploit weapons like Corey Davis more than Mariota was able to over the last few seasons.
This LA secondary has really missed Derwin James. Without James, the Chargers have fallen apart in the back, and they are allowing 7.8 yards per attempt. Those numbers are alarming since this team has only faced one great quarterback in Deshaun Watson, and the other signal callers they have faced are Jacoby Brissett, Matt Stafford, Josh Rosen, Joe Flacco, and Devlin Hodges. Lay the points with the Titans here.
Los Angeles Rams (-3) at Atlanta Falcons
Our pick: Rams -3
Stick a fork in the Falcons, they’re done. Atlanta has lost four straight games after a surprising win over Philadelphia in Sunday Night Football back on Week 2, and the Falcons have been shredded in the secondary. The loss of Keanu Neal has really crushed this team for the second straight year, and Atlanta is 30th in the league in passing defense, allowing 8.5 yards per pass.
The Rams have lost three in a row, but those wins have been excusable. Yes, they lost to Tampa Bay in a wild shootout, but the Buccaneers do that once a year (ask New Orleans), and LA’s last two losses were against Seattle and San Francisco.
An offensive line that can’t protect Jared Goff has been the Rams big issue on this side of the ball, but the Falcons don’t have pass rushers that can consistently get to Goff. The addition of Jalen Ramsey will give the secondary a spark and lead to a Rams win.
Oakland Raiders at Green Bay Packers (-5.5)
Our pick: Raiders +5.5
This is a great spot to take Oakland. The Raiders have had a week off after their surprising win over Chicago in London, and this team has raised more than a few eyebrows in getting out to a 3-2 start. The offensive line play has been excellent, allowing Derek Carr to find open receivers, and Josh Jacobs has proven that he was worth a first-round pick.
Green Bay has one of the NFL’s best defenses, but the Packers are on short rest after playing on Monday night, and the Packers have not been clicking on offense this season. Aaron Rodgers has lacked a reliable receiver, and his frustration is starting to show. Green Bay is 5-1 on the year, but the Packers are only averaging 23.7 PPG, so I like Oakland to get the cover.
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