Patriots vs Falcons | NFL Week 11 Predictions

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It’s a short week for the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons, who open the Week 11 betting schedule with a Thursday Night Football tussle in Georgia. The Pats are back in familiar territory contending for a playoff spot following their fourth consecutive SU and ATS victory, 45-7 over Cleveland on Sunday.

The Falcons had shown signs of progress winning three of four before getting spanked by Dallas and former coach Dan Quinn. A lot has changed since the teams met a few years ago in the Super Bowl, but everyone remembers Atlanta’s epic meltdown. Including that game the Pats are 7-0 SU and ATS in the previous seven meetings.

The Week 11 Thursday Night Football game between the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons will take place at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA at 8:20 p.m. ET on November 18 and will be televised on FOX and NFL Network.

The Week 11 Thursday Night Football game between the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons will take place at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA at 8:20 p.m. ET on November 18 and will be televised on FOX and NFL Network.

New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons Odds

New England Patriots -5.5 | Atlanta Falcons +5.5 [BET NOW]

New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons Money Line

New England Patriots -195 | Atlanta Falcons +135 [BET NOW]

New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons Over/Under

Over/Under 46.5 [BET NOW]

Odds Analysis

As we’ve seen in the last few weeks anything can happen in the NFL. Last month the Pats looked on their way to a second straight losing season sitting at 2-4, but they turned things around in a big way with wins and covers in their last four games putting them in a tie with several teams for the second-most wins in the AFC with six. New England hit the board as a 5.5-point favorite for Thursday’s matchup covering their last three games when laying points.

The most recent took place Sunday when the Pats beat Cleveland 45-7 as a 2.5-point favorite. And they’ve been perfect on the road going 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS. The Falcons have little time to regroup after their worst loss of the season. They were ambushed by Dallas 43-3 and failed to cover the line dropping to 4-5 SU and ATS. The total opened at 46.5.

New England Patriots

There were some gasps from Pats fans when the club released Cam Newton turning control of the offense over to Mac Jones. While things weren’t smooth at the beginning of the year and the Pats won just twice in their first six outings, the offense has been hot during the team’s four-game winning streak. Jones threw for less than 200 yards on Sunday, but he completed 19 of 23 throws with three touchdowns and no picks in the 45-7 victory. During the streak Jones has six scoring passes and one interception and the Pats are averaging 37.5 points.

New England scored more than 20 points once in its first four games going 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS while playing below the total in all four. They’ve scored at least 24 points in their last six games going 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS with the OVER at 5-1. The only setback during that stretch was in overtime to NFC East leading Dallas. The Pats had a pathetic offense last season so placing in the middle of the pack in total yards, passing yards and rushing yards per game is a major improvement. They also rank among the top-10 in scoring.

And while the offense is making strides under Jones the defense has been stellar all year. The group held the Browns to 217 total yards and 1 of 11 on third down holding an opponent to fewer than 10 points for the second straight game. The Pats have the second-best scoring defense and rank sixth in yards allowed.

Atlanta Falcons

It’s back to the drawing board for the Falcons. I don’t think anyone expected them to be a playoff contender with the changes they underwent during the offseason, but a nice little run that saw them win three of four at least provided some optimism. They had a nice outright road win against division rival New Orleans in Week 8 to even their record at 4-4 but they have yet to get over the hump. They haven’t been above .500 at any point during a season since 2018.

If they play like they did against Dallas they won’t get there this season. It was complete failure in all phases leading to a 43-3 loss. The Falcons scored on their first possession and never got inside the Dallas 20-yard line again. Of course it didn’t help facing a Cowboys team that was embarrassed the week before and former coach Dan Quinn certainly had the Dallas defense ready for the task.

Things don’t get any easier. The Falcons haven’t beaten New England since 1998 going 0-7 SU and ATS since then. And while they reached the playoffs the season following their Super Bowl meltdown, the Falcons haven’t been the same. Home field hasn’t helped either. The Falcons are 0-3 SU and ATS in games played in Atlanta. Their only “home” win came against the Jets in England.

Prediction: New England Patriots -5.5 and UNDER 46.5

Patriots vs Falcons Prediction

If the last few weeks have shown us anything it’s that you just don’t know what’s going to happen. I can’t get behind Atlanta’s offense, though, and the Pats are strong defensively. The emergence of Jones has given the offense a boost that has me leaning toward the visitors minus the points.

Prediction: New England Patriots -5.5 and UNDER 46.5

View Week 11 NFL betting odds here.