Can a physical stumble actually cost Hillary Clinton the election?
During a 9/11 memorial ceremony, Clinton began to feel unwell and started to leave the site. As she waited to get into a vehicle, a bystander video captured her stumbling and it immediately went viral.
In the aftermath of Donald Trump’s questions about her health, this has become a major issue. Polls released in the next few days should capture the effect that this has on the race, but what effect has it had on the US election odds?
2016 US Presidential Election Odds
Hillary Clinton -254
Donald Trump +219
Bernie Sanders +3956
Joe Biden +2886
(Odds courtesy BookMaker.eu, as of September 15)
Clinton has explained that she was diagnosed with pneumonia on Friday, but felt the need to press on with an event as important as the remembrance of the terrorist attacks on September 11. Although she has since claimed to be fine and in good health, that hasn’t stopped fueling speculation that she could be replaced as the Democratic Party candidate.
Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders are the two most obvious choices to replace her in case things go south and now there are political betting odds on these two to be the next POTUS. Clinton has stated that she will be back on the campaign trail on Thursday, but there is a crude logic as to why some Democrats might want her to use her health as an excuse to bow out.
Clinton Stepping Aside for Sanders or Biden?
That logic notes how Clinton’s extremely high unpopularity figures, second all-time only behind Trump, have made this a competitive race and that if she stepped aside in order to let the more popular Sanders or Biden run, that would help the Democrats win in the 2016 presidential election in November.
Not only that, but Biden and Sanders may help the Democrats mobilize the youth vote that Barack Obama used to serve two terms in the Oval Office. Clinton has really struggled to gain traction with this demographic, and according to FiveThirtyEight, is only beating Trump among this group by half the percentage that Obama did against Romney in 2012.
However, unless something previously undiagnosed has only recently been discovered, it’s extremely unlikely that Clinton will bow out with less than two months until Election Day. She already helped the party out by taking a backseat to Obama in 2008 and she wouldn’t have gone through the nomination process if she was battling a major health issue.
You don’t change candidates this late in the game and besides, many states have already starting printing ballots with Clinton’s name on them.
What has been interesting in the aftermath of Clinton’s health issues, is Trump’s uncharacteristically tempered response. Many believed that he would berate Clinton and claim that he was right about her health issues, but instead he put out a measured statement wishing her a speedy recovery.
Perhaps Trump has finally turned the corner with a new campaign manager and PR chief, but it’s anybody’s guess on whether or not it will hold.
What Does This Mean for the Election Odds?
It will be extremely interesting to see how this unfolds in the coming days and weeks. The polls have been narrowing for the last couple weeks and with the debates in two weeks, Trump actually stands a realistic chance of becoming the President.
More from BigOnSports:
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How accurate are election odds? Election 2016: Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump Odds to Win Presidency
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