UFC 205 Odds: Cherry Picks and Predictions

UFC 205 Picks

This is really happening. The greatest UFC card ever assembled, in the most legendary fight arena in the world. No injury pullouts, no last-minute doping violations, no weight cut issues – just an unadulterated night packed with amazing fights.

We’ve gone through detailed UFC 205 fight previews this week, from the historic main event between Conor McGregor and Eddie Alvarez to the ridiculously stacked prelims. Now, it’s time to choose the best values on the card and see about getting you paid.

This exclusive Big On Sports feature is known our UFC Cherry Picks. We only assign this title to UFC odds that meet a criteria based on the likelihood of an outcome and payout.

Cherry Picks Record : 11-2

Since UFC Fight Night 95, we’ve targeted value bets as opposed to making simple predictions. These are known as Cherry Picks.

All MMA betting odds courtesy of BookMaker.eu

UFC 205 Odds: McGregor vs AlvarezConor McGregor (-150) vs Eddie Alvarez (+130)

Over/under 1.5 rounds, over -170, under +145

We went over this fight in detail, but I want to reiterate how good a value McGregor is at -150. He is bigger, longer and more explosive than the lightweight champion, but the most important thing to remember here is that Alvarez is hittable and and instinctive brawler.

I think the closest fight comp to make is Alvarez’s fight against Cerrone. Though Alvarez did fine in the first round, Cerrone’s range and smooth striking carved up the Philadelphian in the final two rounds. McGregor has all the tools to do the same and the athleticism to shrug off takedowns.

Plus, the amount of money he pours into this camps to get the best science, coaching and training partners is insane. The “Notorious” is literally the only MMA fighter on the planet who can afford this.

Our Cherry Pick:

McGregor to win at -150

ufc205-betting-picks-jedrzejczykJoanna Jedrzejczyk (-375) vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz (+305)

Over/under 4.5 rounds, over -185, under +155

Fun story: Jedrzejczyk personally called Dana White and begged him to sign Karolina Kowalkiewicz to the UFC. Not because she wanted to help out a fellow Polish fighter, but because there were actually some people in her native country who felt Kowalkiewicz was the best women’s MMA fighter from Poland. As soon as J-Check caught wind of this, she was like “oh hell no.”

I am a huge Jedrzejczyk fan because of stories like this. Even with a last name that’s hell on a sportswriter, her psychotic desire to prove that she’s the best in the world would make Kobe shed a proud tear.

She doesn’t just want to beat KK, the champion wants everyone in Poland to know that it’s not even a competition. Considering that JJ outclasses her in nearly every MMA skill, it wouldn’t surprise me to see a knockout before the fifth round.

Our Cherry Pick:

Under on 4.5 rounds at +155

Woodley vs Thompson: UFC 205 BettingStephen Thompson (-200) vs Tyron Woodley (+170)

Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -135, under +115

I’m going to go completely against my belief that Wonderboy is going to win this fight and think objectively about the money lines presented here. At +170, Woodley is undervalued, plain and simple.

Thompson has fought like a freaking Spartan warrior in his recent fights, but Woodley’s speed could give him serious trouble. And Thompson has proved susceptible to overhand rights, which just so happens to be Woodley’s best punch. Let’s all remember what he did to Robbie Lawler with it:

Our Cherry Pick:

Woodley to win at +170


Khabib Nurmagomedov (-270) vs Michael Johnson (+225)

Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -145, under +125

Johnson is an intriguing underdog at +225. He’s got the athleticism and defensive striking technique to flummox the Nurmagomedov’s immense pressure.

But the reality is that Khabib is probably gonna remind everyone why he probably would be the lightweight champ right now if it wasn’t for untimely injuries. I just don’t see anyone stopping the Dagestani fighter’s takedowns and top control.

At -145, the over on 2.5 rounds is the best value bet in this prelim feature. Prior to knocking out the unknown (and unranked) Darrell Horcher in his last bout, Nurmy went to decision in five out of his last six bouts. He is not a prolific finisher, and Johnson has not been stopped early in more than three years.

Our Cherry Pick:

Over on 2.5 rounds at -145

For more UFC betting news for UFC 205, check out our extensive UFC 205 Betting Guide: Predictions and Picks

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Abe first encountered MMA in 2000, watching a VHS tape of Kazushi Sakuraba kicking the legs of a downed Royce Gracie in Pride Fighting Championships. He's been hooked ever since. Abe has penned NBA and NFL articles for Sports Illustrated and RotoExperts. In 2010, Abe signed on as the lead MMA writer for BigOnSports.com, and is now dedicated to helping fellow fans beat the odds.