Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Odds & Predictions

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For the New York Yankees, whatever can go wrong has gone wrong.  Just when the Bronx Bombers were finally beginning to pick up the pace, COVID blew up on them, decimating their lineup.  Among the victims was slugger Aaron Judge, who was finally putting together a full and big year.  Judge has missed large chunks of time in the past few seasons but was healthy for 2021 until testing positive for COVID.

For the Tampa Bay Rays, the days of being surprised at their success should be over.  The defending American League champions are well on their way to a third consecutive playoff appearance.  For a while, the baseball community just shrugged its shoulders at trying to explain the Rays’ success.  Now Tampa Bay is taken seriously as a credible organization that many owners would prefer to emulate.  The men writing the checks envy how Tampa Bay wins at a fraction of the cost. 

This American League East matchup takes place on Tuesday, July 27, 2021, at 7:10 p.m. ET from Tropicana Field.  This game will air live on MLB Network.

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays (July 27) Odds

ML: New York Yankees | Tampa Bay Rays [BET NOW]

RL: New York Yankees | Tampa Bay Rays [BET NOW]

Total:  [BET NOW]

Season So Far…

The gambling public is becoming wary of the Yankees.  New York is the ultimate name brand MLB franchise.  The Yankees boast a generational fan base. They have won the most championships in the history of the game.  Thus, they carry a retail price tag with a large mark-up for every game.

Oddsmakers are forced to charge higher rates on the Yankees, knowing that is where public demand resides.  By contrast, the Yankees opponents often get a better price than what is actually warranted.  That’s because the linemakers job is to even out the betting action.  Therefore, they have to set a price attractive enough to generate activity on New York’s opponents.

The Yankees are 51-47 straight up, 42-56 vs. the run line, and 42-53-3 under the total. On the road, New York is 24-24 straight up, 23-25 vs. the run line, and 20-28 under the total.  New York is an abysmal -870 betting units on the run line and an even worse -1355 units on the run line. 

MLB metrics show New York 23rd for run production and 11th for earned run average.  In particular, that run production metric is a major disappointment and perhaps the ultimate reason New York is fighting for its playoff lives. 

Aaron Judge and most of the other Yankee players that tested positive for COVID a couple of weeks ago could be back for this game.  Their status is day-to-day.

Tampa Bay remains in good form with four wins in their last five games.  Three of those five games went under the total.  Now the Rays are 60-40 straight up, 55-44 vs. the run line, and 53-43-3 over the total. At home, the Rays are 30-18 straight up, 23-24 vs. the run line, and 22-24-1 under the total.  Tampa Bay is one of the most profitable teams on the board this season.  The Rays are +1223 units on the run line and +795 units on the run line.

MLB metrics show Tampa Bay is sixth for run production and 9th for earned run average. 

Probable Pitchers

Left-hander Jordan Montgomery is the probable starter for the Yankees.  Montgomery is 3-5 with a 3.96 ERA and WHIP of 1.175 WHIP.  Of great concern is that the Yankees have lost his last five consecutive starts.  Montgomery has struck out 105 batters in 104 innings of work. 

Montgomery is 3-5 with a 3.96 ERA and WHIP of 1.175 WHIP. 

Closer Aroldis Chapman is back in good form after a slump earlier this month.  Chapman has allowed one earned run in his last six appearances. 

The Rays are expected to also go with a left-hander.  Shane McClanahan is 4-3 with a 3.88 ERA and WHIP of 1.246.  Tampa Bay has gotten the money in three of his previous four starts. 

Our pick: Tampa Bay Rays

Yankees vs Rays Prediction (July 27)

Our pick: Tampa Bay Rays

In this situation, the Rays are better equipped with a pitcher that has generated more momentum for his team.  New York’s lineup remains Influx with instability over COVID tests.  Finally, the Rays have won nine of their last 14 home games against New York.  Tampa Bay rates the call.

Check out today’s MLB odds.