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Canelo Alvarez vs Gennadiy Golovkin Predictions

Canelo Alvarez is a big betting favorite to retain his super middleweight titles in his third bout with rival Gennadiy Golovkin that’s scheduled to take place on September 17 in Las Vegas. Pound for pound Alvarez is one of if not the best boxer in the world and can solidify his legacy with another victory. He’s also looking to bounce back after suffering a rare loss back in May to Dmitry Bivol by unanimous decision. The two previous fights were closely contested with Alvarez earning a split decision victory in 2018 after a split draw the year prior.

Canelo Alvarez vs Golovkin Odds

Canelo Alvarez -505

Gennadiy Golovkin +387

Rounds: Over 10.5 -198 / Under 10.5 +168

The 12-round super middleweight title fight between Canelo Alvarez ( 57-2-2, 39 knockouts ) and Gennadiy Golovkin ( 42-1-1, 37 knockouts ) will be held at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV on Saturday, September 17, 2022. This is the main event on a five-card ticket. The action begins at 8 p.m. ET and can be seen on DAZN pay-per-view.

Canelo Alvarez vs Gennadiy Golovkin Fight Preview

Both fighters have something to say about the third and possibly final fight between the legends. The previous two ended controversially with many feeling GGG was denied the win in the initial bout, which ended in a draw. A year later the two met again with Alvarez earning a majority decision, a result that was met with skepticism by fans and media. Again many felt Golovkin had the better of the two in the ring, instead GGG was dealt his first professional setback.

Alvarez rose to bigger heights after beating GGG in 2018 winning a light heavyweight title, becoming the undisputed super middleweight champ while widely regarded as the top-ranked pound-for-pound boxer. The reputation was tarnished in May when Alvarez lost a decision in another light heavyweight title bid. His undisputed super middleweight belts are on the line Saturday against an opponent most felt beat him in both earlier confrontations.

While the pressure should be on Alvarez, it’s Golovkin that’s in desperate need of a win. It sounds crazy to say that about a fighter who has only one defeat in 44 career fights, but that’s what’s going on. Getting up in age is hard especially in this business where the body takes a lot of punishment. Golovkin has dealt his share during an illustrious career, but age has crept up.

Though he won four fights since the Alvarez loss, Golovkin is no longer considered one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world. The explosiveness he displayed early in his career is no longer there, but the powerful jabs and body blows remain. The career path would be much different had Golovkin won the second fight, instead he’s looking at evening the record against a fighter he truly believes he beat.

Following the second fight there was heavy demand for a trilogy bout much sooner than what we’ve seen with some experts pointing out the timing. Alvarez seemed to have no interest in another fight with many thinking it was because he felt he lost. Now four years removed from the last fight and with Golovkin not as dominant as he once was, Alvarez jumped at the chance for the trilogy fight. It seems unlikely that Alvarez avoided an earlier fight, but it’s clear he’s catching Golovkin at a vulnerable time.

Alvarez is arguably the better fighter with an ability to adapt. We saw him change his fight plan in the earlier bouts going to a more aggressive approach in the second tussle disrupting GGG enough to get the win. But a rare loss last time out eroded some of the invincibility surrounding Alvarez and the underlying question is how does that affect him heading into Saturday?

Canelo Alvarez vs Gennadiy Golovkin Prediction

With such lofty odds there isn’t much value on wagering Alvarez for the win. It makes more sense to look at alternate markets to find a better chance to make a few bucks.

And the numbers give us an idea of where the fighters are at this stage of their careers. GGG can still deliver and take a punch, but he isn’t the same on defense. And he’s moving up a weight class for the first time to face an opponent who is much better than the one who defeated him four years ago.

We’ve seen Alvarez compete and win at different levels taking on varied competition while GGG has remained virtually the same. That’s not a bad thing since it served him well over the years, but he won’t have anything Alvarez hasn’t already seen.

Prediction: Canelo Alvarez / KO

View the latest boxing odds for today.

Ken Henson
Ken Henson
Ken covers horse racing, soccer, tennis and golf for

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