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CFP National Championship – TCU vs Georgia Predictions

The college football season will be put to rest on Monday night with the determination of a national champion in the College Football Playoff title game. The Georgia Bulldogs aim for the first repeat since the CFP was adopted for the 2014 season and they are a double-digit favorite to take out the surprising TCU Horned Frogs. If this game is as good as the semifinal matchups, fans are in for a treat. The Frogs beat Michigan outright 51-45 as a 9-point dog while Georgia twice rallied from a 14-point deficit to beat Ohio State, 42-41, extending their overall winning streak to 16 games.

The CFP National Championship game between the TCU Horned Frogs and Georgia Bulldogs will take place at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA at 7:30 p.m. ET on Monday, January 9, 2023 and will be televised on ESPN.

TCU vs Georgia Odds

TCU Horned Frogs +12

Georgia Bulldogs -12

Over/Under 63

Odds Analysis

After three bowl-less seasons and a change in the coaching staff few expected TCU to have the season they enjoyed. The Frogs were picked to finish seventh in the Big 12 but they ran the table until the Big 12 Championship suffering their only loss, 31-28, to Kansas State in overtime. TCU won the regular season meeting by 10 points and still closed as a slight dog in that contest. While Georgia has played every game this season as a favorite, the Frogs had doubters and some say they still do. TCU was a 9-point dog against Michigan and opened catching 13 points in this one. The number has been wagered down to TCU +12. Four times TCU played as a dog going 3-1 SU and ATS in those games. UGA failed to cover the 4.5-point line against Ohio State falling to 1-3 ATS in its last four games. And the Dawgs’ defense has been a concern allowing 71 points over the last two games while cashing the OVER in three straight. Playing against large lines in most games UGA is 7-7 ATS.

TCU Horned Frogs

Max Duggan is the poster boy for TCU football this season. He’s been around the program for a few years and started a number of games, but new coach Sonny Dykes elected to start Chandler Morris at QB in the opener. We’ll never know how the season would’ve turned out had Morris not been injured in that first game. Rather than sulking or entering the transfer portal, Duggan took over and became a Heisman Trophy finalist. Duggan has thrown for 3,546 yards and 32 touchdowns with an additional 461 yards and eight scores on the ground.

TCU’s balanced offensive attack gave Michigan’s stellar defense fits. The Frogs entered that game ranked 25th in the nation running and throwing the football. Duggan threw for 225 yards and two TDs while Emari Demarcado rushed for 150 yards on 17 attempts in place of injured Kendre Miller. UM entered the playoff ranked among the top-5 nationally in yards and points allowed. Duggan and the offense did its job and the defense, despite yielding more than 500 total yards, came up with big plays and stops. Bud Clark and Dee Winters each had a pick-six and the unit forced four turnovers while holding the Wolverines to 3 of 13 on third down.

Georgia Bulldogs

For much of the season it was Georgia’s defense stealing the spotlight. The group held eight of the first 12 opponents to 14 points or less and never surrendered more than 22 points in a game. However, the D showed cracks the last two games getting picked up by Stetson Bennett and the offense. LSU had 502 passing yards in the SEC title game, though most of that total came with the Tigers trailing big. UGA built a 35-10 halftime lead and cruised 50-30. Okay, we’ll let that one slide since UGA likely eased off the gas a bit with such a big lead. There was no excuse for giving up 348 passing yards and 467 total yards to OSU, though.

Bennett threw for 274 yards and four TD’s against LSU with Kendall Milton adding 113 yards on the ground. Bennett has been stellar leading the nation’s 11th-highest scoring team by amassing 3,823 with 23 touchdowns and just seven interceptions. The Dawgs topped the 40-point mark in six of their last nine games with the OVER 6-3 in that stretch. They will likely have to pick things up defensively, though Bennett and the offense proved they can win a shootout.

TCU vs. Georgia Prediction

I was thinking the Ohio State game was just what Georgia needed. They rolled every opponent prior to that and haven’t played a tight game since the 2021 opener against Clemson. Coming from down 14 showed they have what it takes, and TCU caught some major breaks against Michigan. Still, the Frogs deserve to be here and that chip on their shoulder will be enough to keep them within the spread.

Our Prediction: TCU Horned Frogs +12 and OVER 63

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George Newman
George Newman
Covers NFL, NBA, MLB and NHL for George is also an avid sports bettor and daily fantasy sports fan.

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