After dropping Game 1 of the Western Conference final to the Golden State Warriors, the Dallas Mavericks find themselves in a familiar situation. The Mavs lost the first game in each of their first two series, falling behind 0-2 against the NBA’s top Phoenix Suns before returning to win the series in seven games.
While most of the games in the second round series were tight, four of them were decided by 20 points or more. After losing Game 1 by 25 points, Dallas fans should not be discouraged. However, the outcome had an impact on the opening spread. After laying 5.5 points on the Game 1 closing line, some shops had the Dubs as a 7-point favorite for Game 2.
Mavericks vs Warriors Date/Time (Game 2)
The Western Conference final between the Dallas Mavericks and the Golden State Warriors will be shown live on TNT on Friday, May 20, 2022, at 9 p.m. ET from Chase Center.
Mavericks vs Warriors Odds (Game 2)
Dallas Mavericks +6.5
Golden State Warriors -6.5
Total 214
Odds Analysis
I suppose the Mavericks have the Warriors just where they want them. No one anticipated Dallas to overcome the No. 1 overall seed Suns in the previous round, but they won all three games at home and produced a game-winning performance on the road in Game 7. They lost the first two games of the series and failed to cover the spread both times.
The Mavs also failed to cover the line in the first game of the Utah series at home. The Mavericks were probably still collecting their breath from the Phoenix series, whereas the Warriors had a few more days off. In all likelihood, the Mavs will become more competitive as the series progresses.
With the Game 1 win, the Warriors improved to 9-3 SU and 6-6 ATS in the postseason, having yet to play seven games in a series. While the Warriors are known for their offence, with players like Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson hitting three-pointers, their defence has recently been the difference. They held their second consecutive opponent to under 100 points, winning the Memphis series 110-96.
It’s also the third time they’ve given up double digits in the last four games. They are 3-0 in those games, always taking the UNDER. The Warriors have also been outstanding at home this season, with the NBA’s second-best record of 31-10. They improved to 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS at Chase Center this postseason.
Dallas Mavs
Luka Doncic was held in check by the Warriors on Wednesday; now it’s up to Jason Kidd and the Mavericks to make the necessary adjustments to allow their superstar to do his thing. Luka scored 20 points in Game 1, but only 6 of 18 and 3 of 10 from three-point range. And, let’s face it, if Doncic fails, the Mavs won’t be able to keep up. The Mavs shot just 36% and were 11 of 48 on three-point tries after scorching the nets in Game 7 against Phoenix. That will not suffice.
The Mavs should be able to relax for Game 2 now that they’ve had some time to catch their breath following an arduous series that took them all over the western portion of the country. The Mavs just need one away win if they keep their home advantage. They’ve previously demonstrated that they’re capable of doing so.
Golden State Warriors
There’s something to be said for wrapping up a series early. In the first round, the Warriors defeated Denver in five games, while Memphis needed seven games to advance. Getting more rest and having Jordan Poole take out Ja Morant helped the Dubs advance in six games, whereas the Mavs had to go the distance to defeat Phoenix. All of this resulted in the Warriors receiving homecourt advantage for the conference final, and they’ve been unbeatable at home this postseason.
Players win games, not the court or the fans. And the absences of Curry and Thompson allowed the Warriors to develop depth. Andrew Wiggins and Jordan Poole have taken on larger roles, scoring 19 points each in Game 1 as seven players reached double figures.
Mavericks vs Warriors Predictions
With teams on more even footing now I expect a closer game. The Mavs are going only as far as Doncic takes them and that’s the difference between them. The Warriors have more depth and secondary scoring while playing tough defense.
If the Mavs find a happy medium between Game 7 of the previous series and the opener of this one, they should stay within the spread, though they may not win the game.
Game 2 Prediction: Dallas Mavericks +6.5 and UNDER 214
