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Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks Predictions and Picks

The Miami Heat concludes a brief three-game road trip with a visit to Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks on Friday night. The Heat opened the trip in Atlanta where they had their three-game winning streak snapped. They had a good run prior to that winning 12 of 17 games to get within striking distance of a top-six in the Eastern Conference. After winning seven in a row the Mavs stumbled, dropping five of seven, including a sweep in back-to-back games with Portland where Doncic scored a season-low 15 points in the opener and sat out the second contest.

The matchup between the Heat and Mavericks takes place on Friday, January 20, 2023 and will air live on ESPN with tip off at 7:30 p.m. ET from American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX. will have betting options for every game on the NBA schedule.

Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks Odds

Miami Heat (Check Back Later)

Dallas Mavericks Warriors (Check Back Later)

Total (Check Back Later)

Season to Date

After opening the season with five losses in seven games and not getting over .500 until the 31st game of the season, the Heat made a mini run to get back in the race. A four-game winning streak in the middle of last month got them going and they were 12-5 SU and 10-6-1 ATS in that span. They’ve been unable to put a winning streak as long together, but more importantly it’s been almost a month since they lost consecutive games. They’ll attempt to continue that streak with a game against New Orleans before heading to Dallas. Defensive breakdowns cost them in a 121-113 loss to Atlanta on Monday dropping them to 24-21 SU and 18-25-2 ATS.

It’s a shame the Mavs are wasting the talents of Doncic. And proof of his value to the team was evidenced in the Pacific Northwest over the weekend. Luka leads the NBA in scoring averaging 33.8 points, but when he has an off night or doesn’t play the Mavs suffer. He scored a season-low 15 points in Saturday’s loss and the Mavs are 0-2 ATS in games he scores fewer than 20. He sat out the next night and the Mavs lost 140-123 failing to cover the 9.5-point spread. Dallas is now 0-5 SU and 1-3-1 ATS in games Doncic doesn’t play.

Miami Heat

The Heat are getting bodies back in the lineup, which will certainly help in the short-term. However, they are still missing a few starters with Kyle Lowry and Caleb Martin on the shelf and key reserve Duncan Robinson out. Martin and Lowry are close to returning with Robinson likely out a few more weeks. Somehow the Heat strung wins together with a patchwork lineup. But it all worked because of Jimmy Butler. Needing to do more with a thinned out roster, Butler took over a few games scoring 35 points in a win over OKC and tallying a 17-11 double-double to take down the Bucks.

Unlike the Mavs, Miami can survive when Jimmy Buckets doesn’t produce. He scored a season-low nine points in a win over the Clippers at the start of the month, but he’s averaging 25 points in seven games since then. Butler also anchors a defense that allows the second-fewest points per game in the league. The Heat cashed the UNDER in six of seven games before allowing 121 points to the Hawks.

Dallas Mavericks

It’s hard to get a handle on the Mavs, who dropped five of seven going 2-5 ATS following a sweep in Portland. Prior to that, they won seven straight games but were just 3-4 ATS. That gives you an idea about where the Mavs are when it comes to wagering on them. Even when they win games they don’t cover. They have the worst cover percentage in the NBA at 34.9 and are the only team with payouts in fewer than 40 percent of their games.

It’s obvious they need Doncic in the lineup since he’s one of the top players in the Association. He’s going for the team’s triple-crown leading in scoring (33.8), rebounds (8.9) and assists (8.8). The club desperately needs to get him some help, though. Christian Wood has been a nice option averaging 18.3 points and 8.4 boards, but the club still has problems scoring consistently averaging less than 113 points. Still, they’ve cashed the OVER in 57.8 percent of their games and in four of their last six meetings with the Heat.

Heat vs Mavericks Prediction

Doncic doesn’t have many bad games consecutively and he’s a beast even Butler has a hard time defending. Given the current makeup of the rosters I’m leaning toward the Mavs, since they’ve also been good at home winning five of their last six while going 4-2 ATS.

Our Prediction: Dallas Mavericks and UNDER

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Jake Flynn
Jake Flynn
Senior writer for Writes NBA, NCAA basketball, MLB, UFC and daily fantasy sports articles.

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