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NFL Week 11 – Chiefs vs Chargers Predictions

Not an original part of the primetime lineup, the Week 11 AFC West clash between the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers was flexed into the Sunday night slot giving the Bolts their second straight appearance on the national stage. They are hopeful this one turns out better than the first, which resulted in a 22-16 loss to San Francisco, though the Bolts earned a second straight payout as an 8.5-point dog. The teams met in Week 2 with the Chiefs prevailing 27-24 in another close game between the clubs. Six of the previous eight meetings were decided by seven points or less with the Chiefs going 5-3 SU and 3-5 ATS in those outings.

The Week 11 Sunday Night Football contest between the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers will take place at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA at 8:20 p.m. ET on November 20, 2022 and will be televised on NBC.

Chiefs vs Chargers Odds

Kansas City Chiefs -5.5 ( -250 )

Los Angeles Chargers +5.5 ( +207 )

Over/Under 50.5

Odds Analysis

We typically don’t see the kind of line movement this game has had. The Chiefs opened as a 6-point favorite and went as high as -7 before action the other way tilted the number. KC settled at -5.5 but don’t be surprised if that moves again. The Bolts are dealing with injuries that have limited them offensively. They had their second lowest point total in last week’s loss to the Niners, though they did stay within the spread for a second straight payout. And though they’ve dropped three of the last five series meetings the Bolts are 4-1 ATS in that span. The Chiefs have won three straight and have a 2-game lead in the AFC West. They can get some separation with another win but they haven’t been a good bet. KC pushed the line in a win over Jacksonville last week and is just 3-5-1 ATS.

Kansas City Chiefs

With Patrick Mahomes doing Patrick Mahomes-like things the Chiefs are downright scary on offense. They lead the NFL averaging 30 points with Mahomes topping all QBs with 2,936 passing yards and 25 touchdowns. The group hasn’t missed a beat with Tyreek Hill gone instead giving guys like Mecole Hardman and Marquez Valdes-Scantling a chance. Behind Mahomes the Chiefs boast the league’s best pass offense with Travis Kelce the top target. Kelce has 63 receptions, 17 more than JuJu Smith-Schuster, and the gap will widen this week if JuJu doesn’t get cleared after taking a scary hit last week.

The Chiefs have struggled to put teams away at home this season, but that hasn’t been the case on the road. They are 3-1 on the road scoring more than 40 points in the victories while earning a payout each time. I guess every team gets a mulligan and the Chiefs had there’s in Indianapolis in Week 3 falling 20-17. In the other three road games they’ve outscored opponents by an average of 43-25 cashing the OVER each time. And they’ve tightened things up defensively allowing just 17 points in each of their last two games.

Los Angeles Chargers

If the Chargers wish to keep any hope of a division title alive they pretty much have to win this game. Not to put any more pressure on the guys, but already two games back in the standings and with a loss to KC earlier, it definitely falls into the must-win category. And it’s hard to find any continuity with a roster that’s constantly in flux. Every team deals with injuries but it seems like the Bolts have been the team hit hardest this season. Last week’s offensive collapse had a lot to do with top receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams being out of the lineup. Both are listed as questionable ahead of this matchup.

That’s just the beginning of the problem, though. Already without Joey Bosa on the defensive line, the club placed two more on IR after injuries in the Niners game. The Bolts were left with only three healthy defensive linemen to finish the game. The group held its own for a half but failed to score after the break allowing SF to overcome a 16-10 deficit. The offense managed just 238 yards with Austin Ekeler a no-show. The team’s lead back had just six carries for 24 yards and it’s imperative he produce more to keep the ball away from KC’s offense.

Chiefs vs Chargers Prediction

As long as the Chiefs don’t take their banged up opponent too lightly they should prevail. LA’s defense has been ravaged more with injuries than the offense and KC has too many weapons to contain. There have been a number of close contests in this series and I would love to see the Chargers make things interesting in the AFC West. If the spread goes higher I would consider backing the Bolts, but as it stands now KC is the pick.

Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs -5.5 and UNDER 50.5

View Week 11 NFL betting lines.

George Newman
George Newman
Covers NFL, NBA, MLB and NHL for George is also an avid sports bettor and daily fantasy sports fan.

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