The season hasn’t even started and the Ohio State Buckeyes are already ticketed for the College Football Playoff. And for good reason, they are loaded, especially on offense with Heisman Trophy hopeful C.J. Stroud running the show. OSU opens the 2022 season Saturday against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in a battle of top-5 teams.
One thing Notre Dame never seemed to do under former coach Brian Kelly was win a big game against an elite opponent. They put together strong seasons, were nationally ranked and reached the CFP, but came up short on far too many occasions. Kelly is gone leaving Marcus Freeman to see if he can produce a big win. And this would be a big one with the Irish a big 17.5-point road dog on the college football betting line.
Notre Dame vs Ohio State Date & Time
The Week 1 college football game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Ohio State Buckeyes will take place at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, OH at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, September 3, 2022 and will be televised on ABC.
Notre Dame vs Ohio State Odds
Notre Dame Fighting Irish +17.5
Ohio State Buckeyes -17.5
Over/Under 58.5
Odds Analysis
I know Ohio State is stacked and they’re playing at home, but the line is outrageous. The Buckeyes opened as a two-touchdown favorite and were pounded driving the line up to OSU -17.5. They were the favorite in every game last season going 11-2 SU and 6-6-1 ATS facing a line of at least 14 points in 11 of those matchups. So, giving points is nothing new. There isn’t much history to go on but what we do have favors OSU. The team’s last met in the 2016 Fiesta Bowl with the Buckeyes winning 44-28. They’ve played four times since 1995 with OSU winning all four by at least 13 points going 4-0 ATS.
Since the 2004 season the Irish have been a two-touchdown or greater dog 11 times losing outright in 10 of those matchups. They’ve lost the last seven games when getting at least 14-points but they are 4-3 ATS. They’ve been just good enough to keep the games close while falling in the win/loss column. The Irish also finished last season 11-2 SU but were more profitable at the betting window going 9-3 ATS. They were 2-2 SU and ATS when catching points on the closing line.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Freeman has big shoes to fill after the Irish won at least 10 games in each of the past five seasons. One thing about taking over a program like this is that the cupboard is far from bare. Freeman has plenty to work with on both sides of the ball. However, the biggest question mark is at the most important position. Tyler Buchner won a preseason battle with Drew Pyne for the starting quarterback job and he’s positioned for success with a strong offensive line, great receivers, and a tight end who could be a major factor.
The key is how well Buchner handles the job. He had limited reps last year completing 21 of 35 for 298 yards with three TDs and three picks. Michael Mayer will likely be a top target after hauling in a team-high 71 receptions with seven touchdowns. Freeman oversaw a defense that ranked 10th in the country allowing 18.3 points a game and just 212 yards through the air. NFL prospect Isaiah Foskey and a strong group of linebackers will be tasked with trying to slow down the nation’s top offense from a year ago.
Ohio State Buckeyes
It’s all about the offense for the Buckeyes and the unit that averaged 551.6 yards and 45.5 points is poised to do it all again. While the Irish attempt to get their QB situation squared away, there is no such problem with Stroud back. The Heisman favorite was masterful throwing for 4,435 yards with 44 TDs and only six interceptions. No team in the country has the skill position talent of OSU with TreVeyon Henderson back after rushing for 1,248 yards and 15 scores. Jaxon Smith-Njigba led the club with 95 receptions and 1,606 yards.
It’s hard to find fault in a team that won went 10-2, but the defense was a letdown in both setbacks. The unit allowed 66 points in the first two games beating Minnesota 45-31 and losing to Oregon 35-28. It also cratered in the 42-27 loss to Michigan that decided the East champion. Overall, though, the group wasn’t bad and should be even better with some additions in the secondary.
Notre Dame vs Ohio State Prediction
There is a reason why the line is where it is. As long as the Buckeyes don’t get caught up reading about how good they are the wins will follow. Offensively they are primed for another big season and the defense has gotten better. But, the Irish are getting overlooked in this matchup and I think they’ll keep it much closer than people expect. I don’t see them pulling the upset, but the points are a plus.
Prediction: Notre Dame Fighting Irish +17.5 / UNDER 58.5
