The PGA Tour season comes to an end this week with the top 30 golfers in the FedExCup point standings gathering in Atlanta for the TOUR Championship. For the fourth straight year the tournament will have a staggered start format giving the leader a greater chance at collecting the $18 million prize. With four wins Scottie Scheffler led the pack most of the season and secured the top spot with a podium finish last week giving him a 2-shot lead to start the tournament and making him the favorite.
The handicap is in place to give those who had a better season a greater chance of winning the FedExCup title. It worked the last two years with Dustin Johnson in 2020 and Patrick Cantlay last year taking the prize from the No. 1 position. Scheffler opens at 10-under, two shots better than Cantlay. Will Zalatoris was third, however he withdrew leaving the spot vacant and cutting the field to 29. There is hope for those further down the standings. Starting at No. 5 Rory McIlroy overcame the five-swing deficit and then some to win his second FedExCup title in 2019.
The 2022 TOUR Championship runs from August 25-29 at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, GA. The tournament will be televised on both Golf Channel and NBC. Visit BookMaker.eu for a complete, updated list of betting odds when you’re ready to place a wager.
Odds to win 2022 TOUR Championship
Scottie Scheffler +220
Patrick Cantlay +405
Xander Schauffele +750
Rory McIlroy +875
Jon Rahm +1350
Tony Finau +2556
Sungjae Im +2616
Cameron Smith +2629
Justin Thomas +2859
Sam Burns +3036
Matthew Fitzpatrick +4100
Cameron Young +6050
Jordan Spieth +8550
Viktor Hovland +10050
Corey Conners +11195
Collin Morikawa +12050
Joaquin Niemann +12550
Scott Stallings +17216
Hideki Matsuyama +17550
Billy Horschel +18550
Max Homa +20050
Sepp Straka +20050
Aaron Wise +25050
Adam Scott +25050
Tom Hoge +30050
Kyoung Hoon Lee +30050
Sahith Theegala +30050
Brian Harman +30050
J.T. Poston +35050
Odds Analysis
It makes sense that Scheffler is positioned at the top of the odds board. He’s the only four-time winner this season with six additional top-5s on his resume. He stumbled a bit toward the end of the season losing his grip momentarily on the top ranking, but a T3 at the BMW Championship got him back to No. 1. Give one of the best players in the world a slight advantage and it’s hard to imagine Scheffler not being among the leaders on Sunday.
You notice the odds are a bit different than they were in previous weeks. The starting handicap definitely benefits those at the top of the standings. In addition the field got smaller with Zalatoris getting out. No one will take his place at East Lake and the No. 3 spot will be left open.
It’s a good idea not to go too far down the odds board since players with the longest odds have the most ground to make up. The bottom five – Aaron Wise, Adam Scott, Kyoung Hoon Lee, Sahith Theegala and J.T. Poston – all open at even-par putting them 10-strokes off the pace before even arriving at the first tee box. That’s also why they are all 250/1 or longer.
Players won’t get much help from the East Lake course, either. The stock par 70 stretches to 7,346 yards with some of the narrowest fairways on Tour. Scoring over the years is right around Tour average even though 30 of the best golfers are playing. It’s also not a good environment to make up strokes since the previous eight winners all finished no better than -12. If you’re not a fan of the handicap system, most shops offer straight up betting with McIlroy and Jon Rahm the top two betting favorites in that market.
The Field
There isn’t a lot of value in backing Scheffler and Cantlay, but they have had plenty of success and a positive return beats the alternative. Cantlay started with a 2-shot advantage last year and it paid off with a 1-shot win. If anyone can overcome a stroke deficit it’s McIlroy, who did that in 2019. McIlroy had the lowest gross score that year at 267 winning the FedExCup title by 4-shots. And Irishman has been on a heater since his runner-up at the Masters with five top-5s in his previous 10 starts.
You can’t give up too many strokes so I’m stopping with Xander Schauffele. He’s four shots behind Scheffler to start, but his work at East Lake can’t be overlooked. He won here in 2017 before the staggered start format and had the lowest gross score at 267 in 2020. He also finished as runner-up twice and never outside the top seven in his five starts. Not only can Schauffele make up the strokes he also a good play in the non-handicap market.
TOUR Championship Prediction
Spot the best players a few strokes and it makes things difficult for the rest of the field. The top-seeded player won each of the previous two tournaments and Scheffler broke out of a slump, at least for him, with a nice showing last week. Staying on the fairway will be a big help this week and Scheffer leads the Tour in GIR, making him a safe choice.
