We haven’t hit major season yet, but it sure is starting to feel like it. The PGA Tour’s unofficial fifth major takes place this week with a loaded field battling for a record $4.5 million first-place check at THE PLAYERS Championship. Each of the last three players to hold down the world No. 1 ranking will continue their battle with current leader Jon Rahm, No. 2 Scottie Scheffler and No. 3 Rory McIlroy topping the odds list as the only players with 10/1 or shorter odds.
There is value further down the odds board as we found out last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational with Kurt Kitayama at around 150/1 emerging victorious in a strong field. And while he won’t defend his title, Cameron Smith was a 40/1 longshot to win at TPC Sawgrass last season. Every winner from the first 19 tournaments this season will peg it up with plenty of value on the second and third tier of players on the current odds list. You can visit BookMaker.eu for a complete, updated list of betting odds when you’re ready to place a wager.
THE PLAYERS Championship runs from March 9-12, 2023 at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte
Vedra Beach, Fla. Parts of the tournament will be televised on both Golf Channel and NBC.
Odds to win THE PLAYERS Championship
Scottie Scheffler +950
Rory McIlroy +985
Jon Rahm +1000
Patrick Cantlay +1350
Max Homa +2100
Justin Thomas +2305
Collin Morikawa +2600
Tyrrell Hatton +2850
Xander Schauffele +2900
Sungjae Im +3050
Tony Finau +3150
Jason Day +3245
Matthew Fitzpatrick +3250
Viktor Hovland +3315
Will Zalatoris +3450
Jordan Spieth +3800
Cameron Young +3850
Keegan Bradley +4050
Joohyung Kim +4200
Keith Mitchell +5050
Shane Lowry +5850
Corey Conners +5850
Si Woo Kim +6250
Rickie Fowler +6450
Alex Noren +7550
Hideki Matsuyama +7850
Billy Horschel +7850
Odds Analysis
It isn’t a surprise to see Scheffler, McIlroy and Rahm as the betting favorites since they are the three best players in the world right now with each having won on Tour already this season. And the all-star field has increased the odds for those players making them worth a long look. But can you really pick a winner from a field that has 43 of the top 50 players in the world? We’ll do our best to identify some potential payouts and there is plenty of value further down the odds board. Justin Thomas is the most recent winner at TPC Sawgrass in the field getting a victory in 2021. And JT has played well of late. It’s been four years since Rickie Fowler won on Tour but he’s also playing well and is a former winner here. Confidence is a wonderful thing and after a few frustrating years Fowler has plenty of it heading to an event he won in 2015 and at +6450 Fowler delivers a big payday.
The Field
Hell, you might as well put the names on a board and throw a dart to back a winner, that’s how good the field is. There is also the added incentive of more prize money and for the first time 600 FedExCup points. The favorites haven’t fared that well at TPC Sawgrass over the years with Rahm’s best a T9 in five starts and McIlroy missing two of the last five cuts. Rory does have a win from 2019 and regained his touch last week. Still, I’m looking further down the odds list for better value.
One player currently on a roll with a history on the course is Jason Day, who is favorably priced at +3245. Day finished among the top-10 in each of his last four starts and has nine top-25s already this season. Though he missed the cut last season, Day was 5 for 5 in his previous starts with a win and two other top-10s in that span. He’s played in every tournament since 2010 and it’s hard to say in anyone’s been more consistent over the past several months.
It’s always tempting to back a longshot, but like I said the cream almost always rises to the top in big time tournaments. And while this isn’t a major championship, it’s the next biggest thing. I’ll go out on a limb and say we won’t see a player at 250/1 win this week. With similar odds to what Smith had last year, Viktor Hovland is an intriguing pick. He managed the course as well as anyone last year leading to a top-10, and he’s 8 for 8 this season with three top-10s among his seven top-25s.
THE PLAYERS Championship Prediction
Picking a winner in this field isn’t easy, but there are a few things to consider before making a wager. Since the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass is one of the trickiest on Tour, knowledge of the property is essential. And having confidence in your game is another factor. Day checks the boxes and he’s playing like he did a few years ago when he won eight tournaments in two seasons. He doesn’t have the victories, but I’m betting that changes.
THE PLAYERS Pick: Jason Day
Top-10 Lock: Jon Rahm
Top-20 Lock: Tyrrell Hatton
