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UFC 279: Chimaev vs. Diaz Predictions & Odds

It’s an odd pairing in the headline fight of UFC 279: Chimaev vs. Diaz. Undefeated Khamzat Chimaev is as big a favorite as you will find on the UFC betting board for Saturday’s welterweight bout with veteran Nate Diaz. Primed for a larger role in the division and in the promotion, Chimaev extended his professional win streak to 11 with a unanimous decision over Gilbert Burns at UFC 273.

The only thing standing between him and a shot at the title is UFC legend Diaz, who made his debut inside the Octagon in 2007. Chimaev is a whopping -1350 favorite. It’s been a struggle recently for Diaz losing his last two fights with only one victory in his previous four bouts. Oddsmakers have him positioned as a +707 underdog.

There will be plenty of action inside the Octagon with 13 scheduled bouts making up the fight card on Saturday, September 10, 2022 from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Early prelims start at 6 p.m. ET and can be seen on ESPN+. Preliminary round matches are on ESPN News and ESPN+ starting at 8 p.m. ET with the main card on ESPN pay-per-view at 10 p.m. ET. Betting options for every fight on the ticket are available at BookMaker.eu when you’re ready to place a wager.

UFC 279: Chimaev vs. Diaz Odds

Main Card

Nate Diaz +707 vs. Khamzat Chimaev -1350

Tony Ferguson +238 vs. Jingliang Li -315

Daniel Rodriguez +168 vs. Kevin Holland -215

Macy Chiasson +135 vs. Irene Aldana -170

Johnny Walker +183 vs. Ion Cutelaba -235

We typically tend to see a closer bout, at least in terms of odds, for a main event. I guess that’s what makes the fight between Chimaev (11-0) and Diaz (21-13) so intriguing. I certainly don’t anticipate a letdown from Chimaev with a shot at the welterweight strap within reach. A winner in all 11 professional fights, including the last five inside the Octagon, Chimaev was on the radar before his last fight but he came into full focus beating Burns. It was his toughest test to date and while Chimaev was startled a few times he proved he could work his way through a tough match against a strong opponent. It was just another reminder that he has all the tools to be a top contender.

You can take all the stats and numbers into account when setting odds and making a wager, but what you can’t measure is a man’s heart. Diaz may be slipping in the latter stages of his career and with losses stacking up some say this could be his last fight. If that’s the case he will want to go out with a bang and he proved recently he can still battle. He shook things up against Leon Edwards last time out before dropping a unanimous decision and his other two most recent setbacks were to Jorge Masvidal and Conor McGregor, so he’s not shy about taking on the best. From a betting standpoint there’s no value backing Chimaev on the moneyline. You can find a better price in alternate markets. Upsets are nothing new like we saw at UFC 278 when Edwards stopped Kamaru Usman. Dropping a few shekels on Diaz could result in a huge payday.

UFC Prediction: Khamzat Chimaev -1350 / (T)KO

The remainder of the main card features important matchups including another welterweight scrap between Tony Ferguson (26-7) and Jingliang Li (19-7). Li showed he needed more work before becoming a contender in the division losing to Chimaev via a first-round submission last year. He rebounded with a stoppage of Muslim Salikhov in July and is a -315 favorite against Ferguson, who makes the move back to the division after a stay as a lightweight where he was interim champion. Ferguson has dropped four straight following a 12-match winning streak.

UFC 279: Chimaev vs. Diaz Odds


Julian Erosa +154 vs. Hakeem Dawodu -195

Anton Turkalj +479 vs. Jailton Almeida -750

Denis Tiuliulin +110 vs. Jamie Pickett -140

Chris Barnett +307 vs. Jake Collier -425

The preliminary round concludes with a bout between featherweight fixtures Julian Erosa (27-10) and Hakeem Dawodu (13-2-1). On the fringe of cracking the rankings in the division, Dawodu hasn’t had enough to get there. He came close following a five-fight winning streak, but a loss to Movsar Evloev set him back. He goes for a second straight win following a unanimous decision over Michael Trizano in February as a -195 favorite. We don’t often see fighters get a second chance so a third chance is unheard of. Dropped by UFC twice before, Erosa is 4-1 with a trio of stoppage wins since 2020. Two other prelims feature big favorites with Jailton Almeida (16-2) at -750 for his catchweight bout with Anton Turkalj (8-0).

UFC 279: Chimaev vs. Diaz Odds

Early Prelims

Danyelle Wolf +264 vs. Norma Dumont -355

Heili Alateng -165 vs. Chad Anheliger +131

Elise Reed +150 vs. Melissa Martinez -190

Darian Weeks -120 vs. Yohan Lainesse -110

If you want to know how boxing relates to UFC, the closing bout in the early prelims could be a good indication. A three-time U.S. National Boxing Championships winner, Danyelle Wolf (1-0) enters the Octagon for the first time since earning her contract with a win in Dana White’s Contender Series two years ago. It’s no surprise to see Wolf as a +264 dog against emerging contender Norma Dumont (7-2) in a women’s featherweight clash.

View today’s UFC 279 betting odds.

Ken Henson
Ken Henson
Ken covers horse racing, soccer, tennis and golf for BigOnSports.com.

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