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UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane Predictions & Odds

Considered by many to be one of if not the best fighter in UFC history, Jon Jones makes his long-awaited return to the Octagon in a heavyweight feature tilt with Ciryl Gane for the vacant heavyweight title at UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane. And if that wasn’t enough the card includes a women’s flyweight title bout between champ Valentina Shevchenko and Alexa Grasso in the co-main event. We can lean on the past to rank Jones but what does the future hold for the now 35-year-old who hasn’t fought in three years? Despite the lengthy absence Jones remains a strong contender for the strap and is actually favored at -165.

The return of Jones was slated to take place against Francis Ngannou, but with the UFC unable to reach an agreement with the heavyweight champ, Ngannou was stripped of his belt and instead we get this matchup. Not a bad consolation prize since the GOAT faces the top contender in the division, but not the bloodbath we would’ve gotten. Jones hasn’t fought since successfully defending his light heavyweight crown with a decision over Dominick Reyes. He never lost a championship inside the Octagon but was stripped of his belt three times by the promotion for bad behavior. Gane looks to take advantage of a second chance at the belt after losing a decision to Ngannou at UFC 270. A third-round stoppage win over Tai Tuivasa in the fall put him back on track for the heavyweight title.

In the co-main event Shevchenko defends her flyweight title for the eighth time and she hasn’t lost a fight in over a decade. As long as she isn’t bored with her status there’s no reason to believe her run at the top won’t continue. Oddsmakers also like her chances positioning Shevchenko as a -800 favorite against Grasso.

There will be plenty of action inside the Octagon with 14 scheduled bouts making up the fight card on Saturday, March 4, 2023 from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV. Early prelims start at 5:30 p.m. ET with the preliminary bouts set for 8 p.m. ET. The main card is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET and can be seen on ESPN pay per view. Betting options for every fight on the ticket are available at BookMaker.eu when you’re ready to place a wager.

UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane Odds

Main Card

Ciryl Gane +131 vs. Jon Jones -165

Alexa Grasso +502 vs. Valentina Shevchenko -800

Geoff Neal +365 vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov -525

Jalin Turner +183 vs. Mateusz Gamrot -235

Jamie Pickett +841 vs. Bo Nickal -1850


Trevin Jones +146 vs. Cody Garbrandt -185

Derek Brunson +179 vs. Dricus Du Plessis -230

Amanda Ribas -120 vs. Viviane Araujo -110

Marc-Andre Barriault -157 vs. Julian Marquez +125

Early Prelims

Kenan Song +479 vs. Ian Machado Garry -750

Mana Martinez +238 vs. Cameron Saaiman -315

Jessica Penne +235 vs. Tabatha Ricci -310

DaMon Blackshear +351 vs. Farid Basharat -500

Esteban Ribovics +201 vs. Loik Radzhabov -260

Two of the biggest fights in sometime headline the ticket with Jones (26-1) making his first appearance in three years. To be the best you have to beat the best and Gane (11-1) stands in the way. All the attention is focused on Jones since he was so dominant before his recent hiatus. But things change in that amount of time and the seemingly forever light heavyweight champ is making changes. Not only is Jones moving up in weight class he’s also three years older. And his previous fights were much closer that what we’ve seen. All that leads me to believe this bout will be close and could go the distance. The advantage that could give Gane an upset victory is his ability to avoid contact. He’s a heavyweight that moves like someone in a lesser division while still carrying the force to deck opponents. Jones, however, is a survivor and can adjust to different attacks. The age and layoff are worrisome, but Jones emerging as the favorite tells you everything. I’m just not sure Gane can compete after watching his last two fights.

UFC Prediction: Jon Jones / Decision

With such long odds there’s no value betting Shevchenko (23-3) on the moneyline. If you really want to back the champ alternate markets are worth a look. You can get +120 odds on the fight going the distance, which isn’t as far-fetched as you might think. The champ was pushed to her limit last time out edging challenger Taila Santos by split decision to retain her title. And Grasso (15-3) moved up the ranks with four consecutive wins after making the move to flyweight with three of them decided by the judges. At +502 it might be worth dropping some pocket change on Grasso for the upset. She dominated Viviane Araujo with a unanimous decision win in October showing the stamina to last five rounds against a tough opponent. Shevchenko is the queen of the division, though, and this is her fight to lose, which I don’t think she does.

UFC Prediction: Valentina Shevchenko / Decision

A clash between ranked middleweights stands out as one of the top preliminary round fights. Dricus Du Plessis (18-2) is 4-0 inside the Octagon with six straight wins overall. A fixture in the division, Derek Brunson (23-8) saw his five-fight winning streak ended by Jared Cannonier last time out sparking talk of retirement. I guess the question is; how does Brunson want to play this one as a +179 underdog.

UFC Prediction: Dricus Du Plessis / (T)KO

View UFC 285 fight odds.

Ken Henson
Ken Henson
Ken covers horse racing, soccer, tennis and golf for BigOnSports.com.

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