As we head into Week 7 of the XFL season two things are clear. First, the DC Defenders are the best team in the league. If there was any doubt that was laid to rest with last week’s 37-26 win over Houston, improving DC to a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS record. The second thing is that the Orlando Guardians are the worst team. They’ve had a few close calls with three of their setbacks coming by a combined 11 points. So of course those two meet on Saturday with DC emerging as a 10-point favorite, the first double-digit line we’ve seen this season. I backed Orlando last week as a 9.5-point dog to Seattle and the Guardians stayed within the spread for their second straight payout and third in the last four games.
For the third straight week the Seattle Sea Dragons open the betting week and they seem to like the spot. They beat Seattle 26-19 last week for their fourth straight triumph. In Week 5 they handed Houston its first loss and the Sea Dragons should get some consideration as the best team with their two defeats coming by a combined six points to DC and St. Louis. Seattle is a 5-point favorite for the tilt against the Renegades in Arlington. Three teams are 4-2 with two of them set to play on Sunday when St. Louis visits Houston. The Roughnecks look to stop a 2-game SU and ATS skid and are a 3-point favorite to do so.
Seattle Sea Dragons (4-2) at Arlington Renegades (3-3), 7 p.m. ET (FX)
Opening Line: Seattle -5, O/U 37.5
We should ask if Seattle’s defense is better than Arlington’s offense with the answer determining the winner. Behind passing leader Ben DiNucci, the Sea Dragons lead the XFL averaging nearly 340 yards and they topped the 20-point mark in their last two games. They continue to be plagued by turnovers with DiNucci tossing a league-high eight interceptions. A number of thwarted drives have prevented Seattle from scoring more than their 128 total points. Arlington’s offense has been non-existent since the opener scoring 14 points or less in the last five games. The top ranked total defense will have to step up to get a win. It doesn’t step that high, but it does enough to cover the spread.
Prediction: Arlington +5 / UNDER 37.5
San Antonio Brahmas (2-4) at Vegas Vipers (1-5), 3 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Opening Line: Vegas -3, O/U 39
Just like Arlington the Brahmas’ offense has been stuck in neutral most of the season. With the exception of their Week 3 30-point outburst against Orlando, they haven’t scored more than 15 points in a game. San Antonio won last week without scoring an offensive touchdown. Three field goals and a TD on a fumble return were all the Brahmas needed to secure their second win. Maybe they’ll have more luck against the worst defense. Vegas yields 359.8 yards per game and is next to last allowing an average of 27.2 points. Heck, Orlando scored 32 against them. San Antonio has one of the best pass defenses and should limit Vegas’ strength.
Prediction: San Antonio +3 / UNDER 39
DC Defenders (6-0) at Orlando Guardians (0-6), 6 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Opening Line: DC -10, O/U 46
When catching more than seven points on the betting line Orlando is 3-1 ATS and I’m tempted to back them again. However, I just can’t against a strong DC unit. Orlando surrenders the most points and DC scores the most behind a punishing ground game. Abram Smith followed up his record 218 yard performance with 95 last week giving DC the best rushing attack. And we saw Jordan Ta’amu ignite the offense with one of his best games going 19 of 31 for 245 yards and two TDs against a strong Houston unit. The Defenders are middle of the pack defensively but they make plays ranking second in sacks and interceptions with a league-best three INTs returned for scores. One of those was last week to put a dagger in Houston.
Prediction: DC -10 / UNDER 46
St. Louis Battlehawks (4-2) at Houston Roughnecks (4-2) at 2 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Opening Line: Houston -3, O/U 45
The betting week closes with what on paper looks like the best game. A deeper dive tells us Houston might not be as good as we once thought, though. None of their four wins came against a team currently with a winning record and when they had a chance to change that they failed in setbacks to Seattle and DC. Houston padded its defensive stats in games against Orlando, twice, Arlington and San Antonio, the three lowest scoring clubs in the XFL. It also looks like Houston has a QB controversy after Cole McDonald finished up last week. It’s tough to trust Houston right now so I’ll back the points.
Prediction: St. Louis +3 / UNDER 45
