In a matter of only a few days, Donald Trump’s odds of winning the 2020 presidential election has fallen from -125 (bet $125 to win $100) to -104 (bet $104 to win $100) according to betting odds at offshore sportsbook BookMaker.eu.
Joe Biden’s odds, meanwhile, have risen from +125 (bet $100 to win $125) to +118 (bet $100 to win $118).
Heading into Super Tuesday (March 3), Trump was a -162 betting favorite (implied probability of winning has fallen 8.7%). To out in perspective how much ground Biden has gained on Trump in the betting market over the past 12 days, the former Vice President was a +500 underdog (14.2% implied probability) prior to his big Super Tuesday wins.
Biden being +118 to win the presidential election of course means that he’s a heavy -1180 favorite to win the Democratic nomination, mounting a growing lead over Bernie Sanders, who is an +2300 underdog heading into Sunday night’s debate.
Why The Big Line Move?
Trump’s handling and muted response to the Coronavirus (Covid-19) global pandemic is the main reason for his drastic odds drop. U.S. financial markets plunged as trading began on Monday — enough to trigger a temporary halt to trading — amid fears over the economic fallout of the coronavirus outbreak and uncertainty over falling oil prices. The rapid decline in stocks has brought an end to the longest bull market in American history. And it’s another sign that investors see a global recession looming.
At the same time Biden and Sanders publicly slammed the Trump administration for its “incompetent” response to the coronavirus pandemic.
We’ll continue to monitor how the betting market shifts in the coming days and weeks, but for now, let’s take a look at the most recent presidential election odds as of Sunday per BookMaker.eu.
2020 Presidential Election Odds
Check out the latest political betting odds here.