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NFL Pick: Miami Dolphins 2022 Regular Season Win Total

To some degree the 2021 Miami Dolphins could be viewed as a failure. There were high expectations after the club won 10 games the year before and had its sights set on the AFC East title and a playoff berth. However, things didn’t quite work out, at least at the start of the year. Most sportsbooks had Miami’s win total last season at 9, which seemed like a big loss for over bettors when the team dropped seven straight games to open the year 1-7. It was a major turnaround in the second half with the Fins winning seven in a row and eight of their last nine to finish the year with a winning 9-8 record.

The closing run wasn’t enough to keep Brian Flores around with the Dolphins turning to former San Francisco OC Mike McDaniel as their new coach. And it’s evident the team is looking to upgrade on that side of the football. The Dolphins haven’t finished better than 15th in scoring or 22nd in total offense in seven seasons. The development of Tua Tagovailoa should be expedited with Tyreek Hill added to the mix along with a rebuilt offensive line. No team was busier during the offseason, but can the moves improve a team that’s won more than 10 games just three times in the past 18 seasons?

Miami Dolphins 2022 Regular Season Win Total Odds

Dolphins Over 9 Wins -123

Dolphins Under 9 Wins +103

Let’s face it, the season largely depends on how Tagovailoa performs. The guy has his critics, but that comes with playing the most important position. Still, Tua won seven of the 12 games he started completing 67.8 percent of his passes for 2,653 yards with 16 touchdowns. The numbers aren’t bad, but they don’t compare to what other QBs in the top of his draft class have done. Tua has played fewer games than Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert and he has a lot less yards and touchdown passes.

McDaniel brings with him plenty of success in the West Coast offense, which will be a good fit for Tagovailoa’s game. The additions of Hill, Chase Edmonds and Cedrick Wilson should help the Dolphins score more than 20 points they averaged last season. Adding Connor Williams and Terron Armstead upgrades a line that allowed 40 sacks and struggled in the run game. The Dolphins averaged just 92.2 rushing yards to rank 30th last year putting a lot of pressure on the passing game.

It’s easy to blame the offense for the lack of success in 2021, but we can’t forget about the defense. The Dolphins were middle-of-the-road in most major categories allowing over 337 yards and 22 points per game. They have a stud corner in Xavien Howard and they are strong up front. However, depth becomes an issue with so many resources turned over to the offense. If the group does get better it won’t be a by much. Rather the likelihood is some regression offsetting the gains made on the other side of the football.

2022 Miami Dolphins Schedule

Week 1: vs. New England Patriots, Sunday, September 11, 1 p.m. ET

Week 2: at Baltimore Ravens, Sunday, September 18, 1 p.m. ET

Week 3: vs. Buffalo Bills, Sunday, September 25, 1 p.m. ET

Week 4: at Cincinnati Bengals, Thursday, September 29, 8:15 p.m. ET (PRIME)

Week 5: at New York Jets, Sunday, October 9, 1 p.m. ET

Week 6: vs. Minnesota Vikings, Sunday, October 16, 1 p.m. ET

Week 7: vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday, October 23, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)

Week 8: at Detroit Lions, Sunday, October 30, 1 p.m. ET

Week 9: at Chicago Bears, Sunday, November 6, 1 p.m. ET

Week 10: vs. Cleveland Browns, Sunday, November 13, 1 p.m. ET

Week 11: BYE

Week 12: vs. Houston Texans, Sunday, November 27, 1 p.m. ET

Week 13: at San Francisco 49ers, Sunday, December 4, 4:05 p.m. ET

Week 14: at Los Angeles Chargers, Sunday, December 11, 4:05 p.m. ET

Week 15: at Buffalo Bills, Saturday, December 17, (TBA)

Week 16: vs. Green Bay Packers, Sunday, December 25, 1 p.m. ET

Week 17: at New England Patriots, Sunday, January 1, 1 p.m. ET

Week 18: vs. New York Jets, Sunday, January 8 (TBA)

You don’t often see a team gut its coaching staff after two winning seasons. That’s what we have in Miami, though, and first year coaches have posted a below .500 winning percentage, which doesn’t bode well. And I really don’t think the schedule helps in getting over the 9-win mark. The AFC East will be tough with the Jets improved, the Pats looking to regain their spot among the elite and Buffalo’s championship window still open. Facing the AFC North is no picnic with early games at Baltimore and Cincinnati. And the Dolphins close the season with four of their final six games on the road, where they went 3-5 last season.

Quick Pick

The offense should be better, with should the operative word. I’m not convinced Tagovailoa is the guy to lead this team to the Promised Land, but the Dolphins are giving him every opportunity. The defense can be better but the club put too much of an emphasis on upgrading the offense. Instead of losing games 20-17 they’ll lose 34-31. And a loss is a loss no matter how you look at it. Nine wins seems about the ceiling so I’d back the UNDER.

Our Pick: Miami Dolphins UNDER 9 Wins

View NFL betting lines.

George Newman
George Newman
Covers NFL, NBA, MLB and NHL for George is also an avid sports bettor and daily fantasy sports fan.

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