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UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez Picks

We saw a featherweight title fight between the two powers in the weight class a few weeks ago at UFC 276. This week we get a chance to see who’s next in line for a possible shot at the throne with a pair of contenders battling in the main event at UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez. The title is actually a misnomer since on this rare occasion we have a matinee ticket. There’s also a meeting of top-15 strawweights looking to get back in the win column as the co-main event.

The action inside the Octagon will be fierce with 12 scheduled bouts making up the fight card on Saturday, July 16 from the UBS Arena in Elmont, NY. The main card can be seen on ABC and ESPN+ starting at 2 p.m. ET. The prelims get started at 11 a.m. ET and can be seen on ESPN and ESPN+. You can wager on an outright winner and also a specific round and method of victory. Odds for every bout on the ticket are available at BookMaker.eu when you’re ready to place a wager.

UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez Odds

Main Card

Yair Rodriguez +139 vs. Brian Ortega -175

Michelle Waterson +264 vs. Amanda Lemos -355

Jingliang Li +136 vs. Muslim Salikhov -171

Matt Schnell +211 vs. Su Mudaerji -275

Charles Jourdain +139 vs. Shane Burgos -175

Lauren Murphy +168 vs. Miesha Tate -215

The headline bout is a good one with plenty at stake for the combatants. The No. 2 featherweight Brian Ortega (15-2) is favored (-175) in this bout with No. 3 Yair Rodriguez (13-3). Ortega’s only defeats came against the top two fighters in the division in his last three bouts. Ortega earned his first shot at the belt by dropping Frankie Edgar at UFC 222 becoming the first fighter to finish the former lightweight champion. He lost his title fight with Max Holloway on a doctor’s stoppage at the end of the fourth round. Ortega pummeled Chan Sung in 2020 earning another shot at the belt, only to come up short against current champ Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 260. It’s been over a year since his last fight so there could be some rust involved.

Rodriguez is also coming off setback to Holloway last November ending a stretch that saw him win 10 of 11 fights with a NC. He’s 8-2 inside the Octagon with his other loss to Edgar. Ortega is strong on the mat nearly subduing the champ last time out. He also can also punch with authority and isn’t afraid to mix it up. His defense is suspect giving Rodriguez a good chance with his lethal kicks. That is if he can stay on his feet long enough.

UFC Prediction: Brian Ortega -175 / (T)KO +650

Both fighters in the women’s strawweight co-main event are coming off losses, but oddsmakers clearly favor Amanda Lemos (11-2-1) in this scrap with Michelle Waterson (18-9). Listed at -355 on the opening UFC betting line, Lemos has a better record against stiff competition. And she’s looking to put the last fight that resulted in a submission loss to former champ Jessica Andrade just three minutes in that stopped a five-fight winning streak behind her. Lemos just attacks and rarely relents scoring seven stoppages and two subs among her wins. She lands over five significant strikes per minute with 57 percent accuracy. In other words, she dishes out a lot of punishment. Waterson is a gamer but she is showing signs of decline coming off a bad decision loss to Marina Rodriguez 14 months ago. She is skilled and has a big heart, but realistically she’s no match for Lemos. And with all signs pointing to Lemos it’s a good idea to follow them.

UFC Prediction: Amanda Lemos -355 / Decision

UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez Odds


Dalcha Lungiambula +186 vs. Punahele Soriano -240

Ricky Simon +137 vs. Jack Shore -173

Herbert Burns +181 vs. Bill Algeo -233

Da Un Jung -125 vs. Dustin Jacoby -105

Dustin Stoltzfus +115 vs. Dwight Grant -145

Jessica Penne +131 vs. Emily Ducote -165

Some exciting fights highlight the prelims with none bigger than the heavyweight scrap between Da Un Jung (15-2-1) and Dustin Jacoby (17-5-1). Both fighters pack a mean punch and they’ve been racking up wins lately. Listed as the -125 favorite, Jung is 14-0-1 in his last 15 fights and 4-0-1 inside the Octagon. Eleven of his wins have come by KO, including his most recent fight when he pounded Kennedy Nzechukwu with an assortment of elbows three minutes into the first round. A graduate of the Contender Series, Jacoby is also unbeaten in the promotion going 5-0-1 with seven wins and a draw in his last eight pro fights. Some will question Jung’s competition to this point, including me, and faced with an opportunity against his toughest opponent we’ll see just how good he is. Oddsmakers have this pegged as a close fight, however there’s a good chance it doesn’t go the distance.

UFC Prediction: Da Un Jung -125 / (T)KO

View today’s UFC betting lines.

Ken Henson
Ken Henson
Ken covers horse racing, soccer, tennis and golf for BigOnSports.com.

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