PGA Tour: Arnold Palmer Invitational Best Predictions

The PGA Tour visits Orlando for the Arnold Palmer Invitational this week. Tyrrell Hatton posted a one-shot victory last year becoming the fifth straight international player to win. Hatton and the rest of the field are behind Rory McIlroy at the top of the odds board.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Matchup Odds (Player vs Player)

Jason Day +105 vs. Hideki Matsuyama -135

Rory McIlroy -170 vs. Tyrrell Hatton +140

Rory McIlroy -115 vs. Viktor Hovland -115

Rory McIlroy -130 vs. Bryson DeChambeau +100

Sungjae Im -110 vs. Patrick Reed -120

Matthew Fitzpatrick -140 vs. Paul Casey +110

Jordan Spieth -110 vs. Louis Oosthuizen -120

Tommy Fleetwood -110 vs. Francesco Molinari -120

Max Homa -140 vs. Marc Leishman +110

Will Zalatoris -120 vs. Billy Horschel -110

Harris English -115 vs. Jason Kokrak -115

Rickie Fowler -110 vs. Justin Rose -120

Kevin Na -145 vs. Kevin Kisner +115

Cameron Davis -120 vs. Christiaan Bezuidenhout -110

Talor Gooch -150 vs. Branden Grace +120

Adam Hadwin +100 vs. Shane Lowry -130

Andrew Putnam +105 vs. Maverick McNealy -135

Ian Poulter -105 vs. Brendon Todd -125

Corey Conners -155 vs. Matt Wallace +125

Patton Kizzire +110 vs. Zach Johnson -140

Alex Noren +110 vs. Si Woo Kim -140

Wyndham Clark -170 vs. Lee Westwood +140

Sungjae Im -115 vs. Matthew Fitzpatrick -115

Patrick Reed -150 vs. Paul Casey +120

Jason Day -140 vs. Jordan Spieth +110

Louis Oosthuizen +100 vs. Hideki Matsuyama -130

Viktor Hovland -140 vs. Tyrrell Hatton +110

Bryson DeChambeau -135 vs. Tyrrell Hatton +105

Viktor Hovland -110 vs. Bryson DeChambeau -120

(Odds provided by BookMaker.euLines last updated Wednesday at 2:30 p.m. ET.)

The Course

Bay Hill has hosted since 1979 and there have been few changes since that first playing. The adjustments that were made were designed to increase the appeal to amateurs and the public while remaining a challenge to the Tour pros. A recent renovation added close to 50 yards putting the scorecard distance at 7,454 yards. It plays long but is inviting with wide fairways. However, thick rough puts accuracy at a premium and brings into play long irons. The par 4s don’t typically yield a lot of birdies so making up strokes will be done on the four par 5s that average 557 yards. Being in Florida there is plenty of water and wind always seems to be a factor. It did last year when Hatton, Marc Leishman, Sungjae Im and Bryson DeChambeau were the only players to finish with a below par score.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Matchup Predictions

Marc Leishman +110 vs. Max Homa

Speaking of Leishman, last year’s runner-up continued his string of success at Bay Hill making him a solid play at plus odds in this matchup. Along with his solo second Leishman has a win (2017) and an additional top-10 in his last four starts. Toss in a T3 back in 2011 and few players have enjoyed Arnie’s layout more. Recent form is solid, too, with a T4 in Hawai’i among his two top-20s over his previous four starts.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout -110 vs. Cameron Davis

Since there is an international theme at this event why not back a recent winner on the European Tour. Bezuidenhout won back-to-back in his native South Africa at the end of last season as part of five top-25s in his last eight ET starts. He played the weekend in his last two major championship starts and was T32 at last week’s WGC. With a Euro feel to the field you can expect Bezuidenhout to stand out.

Jordan Spieth +110 vs. Jason Day

Can we start trusting Spieth again? Things are trending up for him with three straight top-15s, and the Bay Hill layout should assist his drives. He is making his tournament debut and water is never something a player that hits errant tee balls wants to see. But Spieth is loaded with confidence after top-5s in Phoenix and Pebble Beach. A Saturday stumble cost him at the Genesis, but he still claimed a T15, which is impressive on its own.

Viktor Hovland -110 vs. Bryson DeChambeau

No one on Tour is playing better than Hovland right now so I’m going to ride him as long as possible. A T2 at The Concession was his third straight top-5 and fourth in five starts that included a win at the Mayakoba in December. Admittedly not a fan of Florida golf, Hovland dispatched that notion last week. He’ll have to do the same at Bay Hill after finishing outside the top-35 in his last two visits. He certainly isn’t the same player, though.

Matthew Fitzpatrick -115 vs. Sungjae Im

This is an interesting matchup between golfers who have done well at Bay Hill in the past. I’m leaning toward Fitzpatrick, though, based on his recent play. He won in Dubai on the Euro Tour in December and grabbed another top-20 before heading to the PGA Tour where he collected a T5 at the Genesis and a T11 at last week’s WGC. He was runner-up here in 2019 and placed ninth last year, so it’s hard to argue against him.