The winning streak continued in Week 4, as I went 2-1 with my college football picks and that brings the overall record to 9-5 ATS on the season. I even hit a total so you know things are going pretty well. I will try and keep the winning streak going with a good card of games to choose from in Week 5, including a couple of intriguing Top 25 matchups. Let’s look at the five plays for this week.
Week 1: 2-2 ATS
Week 2: 2-1 ATS
Week 3: 3-1 ATS
Week 4: 2-1 ATS
YTD Record 9-5 ATS
College Football Best Bets (Saturday, September 28)
The pick: Washington State vs. Utah over 56.5
The reason: I don’t get the line move on this total at all. It opened at 59 and is down to 56.5. We know that Washington State can score and that they can’t stop anyone. There is no reason to think that changes against the Utes. Utah does have a good defense, but they are not going to stop the Cougars from putting up points. The Utes gave up 30 points last week to USC and I think the Cougars have a more potent offense than the Trojans. I will go over the total in this one.
The pick: Kansas +16.5 at TCU
The reason: This year’s Kansas team is not a disgrace, as they have already beaten Boston College and they nearly beat West Virginia last week. TCU is nowhere near what they used to be and they showed last week they have a very weak defense, as they couldn’t stop SMU. I don’t know that Kansas will win this game outright, but TCU has no business laying this many points to any team in the country. I will take the Jayhawks plus the points.
The pick: No. 18 Virginia vs. No. 10 Notre Dame Under 50
The reason: One thing we know about both Virginia and Notre Dame is that they can play defense. The Cavaliers are giving up just 18 points per game, while the Irish are also giving up just 18 per contest. I think the Irish may bounce back against the Cavaliers after their loss to Georgia last week, but this year’s Virginia team is no pushover. I am tempted to take the Irish, but I think the better bet is to simply take the game under the total.
The pick: No. 21 USC vs. No. 17 Washington Under 59
The reason: This is definitely the week to play totals for me. The Trojans have had a lot of success on offense this season, but they have faced Fresno, Stanford, BYU and Utah. Of those teams, the only one that has a defense is Utah and it could be that the Utah defense is overrated this season. The Trojans will get a true test against the Washington defense. The Huskies are allowing just 18.2 points per game this season. I just can’t see a shootout in this game and it would have to be a very high scoring game to clear this number. I will go under the total in this one.
The pick: UCLA vs. Arizona Over 71.5
The reason: I really don’t think oddsmakers can put a high enough total on this game and 71.5 actually seems like a bargain. The Bruins defense is a disgrace and the Arizona defense is not much better. The Bruins are giving up 39.7 points per game and Arizona is giving up over 33 points per contest. I don’t think Chip Kelly is a good overall coach, but we know he can coach offense and UCLA broke out in a big way offensively last week. I actually have similar thoughts about Arizona’s Kevin Sumlin, as he has not proven he can coach and his defenses are terrible. I was tempted to take the Bruins plus the points, but the much better play is to take this game over the total. This is also a late game on Saturday night so depending upon how the day goes you can go for the kill or try and bail out.
Check out the latest college football week 5 betting odds.
Check out last week’s picks here: College Football Betting | Week 4 Best Bets.