It has been a rough start to the NFL season, as I am just 2-7 ATS so far, but that just means a big turnaround is in order. I played a total last week that didn’t work out, so I will simply avoid playing totals this week. I will focus on taking the points in most of the matchups and also focus on going against the public, since the public is coming off a good week. Let’s look at the picks for Week 4.
Week 1: 1-2 ATS
Week 2: 0-3 ATS
Week 3: 1-2 ATS
Overall: 2-7 ATS
NFL Week 4 Consensus Picks
NFL Week 4 Best Bets (Sunday, September 29)
Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-16)
The pick: Dolphins +16
I know you are probably laughing, but the Dolphins played much better last week and the wise guys have taken this number down a bit from the opener of 16.5. Since when are the Chargers are trustworthy favorite? We know that the Chargers are not a reliable team when traveling east and to cover this game they have to win by 17. I sure don’t think the Chargers are a great team and this is the type of number that the Chiefs or Patriots would be laying on the road against the Dolphins. I will take the Dolphins plus the big points.
Kansas City Chiefs (-6) at Detroit Lions
The pick: Chiefs -6
This is a battle of unbeatens, but I think there is a big difference between the Chiefs and the Lions. The Chiefs have the better quarterback, better coach and they might even have the better defense. The Lions can’t stop anyone and the Chiefs are not much better, but which team do you want in an expected shootout? I expect that Mahomes will have a huge game and that the Chiefs will win this by at least two touchdowns. I will lay the points with Kansas City.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos (-3)
The pick: Jaguars +3
There is not much to like right now about the Broncos and I don’t see it getting any better against the Jaguars. Jacksonville has shown some life with Minshew at quarterback. It is already obvious that Joe Flacco is not the answer for the Broncos at quarterback and there was a reason that Vic Fangio never got a head coaching job before this season. Fangio is an excellent defensive coordinator but he is a bad head coach. The Broncos not only have a bad head coach, but they don’t have a defensive coordinator and John Elway has made a mess of things. I think Jacksonville can win this one outright, so I will take the points.
New Orleans Saints vs. Dallas Cowboys (-2.5)
The pick: Saints +2.5
I would sure prefer to be getting three points, but I am not yet sold on the Cowboys. They are 3-0, but their three wins were against the Giants, Redskins and Dolphins. The level of competition goes way up this week and Dallas is laying points on the road? I just can’t see it, as the Saints proved last week that they can win without Drew Brees. What people sometimes forget is that Brees wasn’t that great down the stretch for the Saints a year ago. Teddy Bridgewater is nothing special, but he doesn’t make mistakes and he gets the ball to his playmakers. I think the wrong team is favored in this one, as New Orleans is at home and they have the better team. Give me the Saints plus the points.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4)
The pick: Bengals +4
This is an ugly Monday night game between winless teams, but why are the Steelers laying more than a field goal? Pittsburgh has shown nothing this season, while the Bengals have actually been competitive and could easily have a couple of wins. I think the end is finally near for Mike Tomlin and everyone will be calling for his head if the Steelers lose this one at home on Monday night. I think the Bengals can stay with Pittsburgh in this one and that makes taking the points attractive.
Check out the latest NFL Week 4 betting odds.