The Masters Tournament | Odds and Predictions

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The reign of Dustin Johnson as defending champion could be the shortest in the history of The Masters. That is unless he becomes the first back-to-back titlist since Tiger Woods in 2002. DJ put on a clinic in November setting a record at Augusta National Golf Club by carding a 20-under 268 to win by five strokes. It was also the largest margin of victory since Tiger’s scintillating performance in 1997 when he finished 12 swings clear of Tom Kite.

Both the score and the margin are the exception and not the norm when the best golfers in the world get together. That makes what Johnson did even more special. He’s cooled off a bit lately, but he’s still ranked No. 1 in the OWGR and positioned as the betting favorite ahead of notables like Bryson DeChambeau, Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele.

The Masters runs from April 8-11, 2021 at spectacular Augusta National Golf Club in Augusta, GA. ESPN will televise the first two rounds with CBS taking over weekend chores.

2021 Masters Tournament Odds

Dustin Johnson +835

Bryson DeChambeau +1015

Jon Rahm +1015

Justin Thomas +1105

Jordan Spieth +1175

Rory McIlroy +1450

Xander Schauffele +1750

Patrick Cantlay +2251

Tony Finau +3251

Hideki Matsuyama +3251

Brooks Koepka +3351

Patrick Reed +3551

Cameron Smith +3852

Daniel Berger +3852

Collin Morikawa +3952

Jason Day +4250

Webb Simpson +4425

Viktor Hovland +4450

Matthew Fitzpatrick +4650

Louis Oosthuizen +4850

Paul Casey +4950

Adam Scott +5050

Scottie Scheffler +5550

Sungjae Im +5850

Joaquin Niemann +6050

Lee Westwood +6150

Tyrrell Hatton +6250

Sergio Garcia +7050

Tommy Fleetwood +7350

(Odds provided by BookMaker.euLines last updated Thursday at 9:30 a.m. ET.)

Masters Odds Analysis

Despite a recent hiccup it’s easy to see why Johnson is at the top of the odds board. He has five wins in the last 10 months and was unconscious in November when he navigated Augusta to a record setting total. He hadn’t finished worse than T11 in seven starts this season until rounds of 77 and 78 left him outside the top-50 at the WGC-Workday Championship.

He followed that with a T48 at THE PLAYERS and didn’t make it out of the group stage at the WGC-Match Play. We haven’t seen a stretch like this from DJ in some time. There are a number of players just waiting for DJ to stumble. The length of Augusta plays into the mammoth tee shots of DeChambeau’s game and he tackled Winged Foot expertly to win the U.S. Open back in September.

Keep an eye on Spieth, who has emerged from a lengthy slump by playing the best golf of his career over the last few months. He ended a four-year winless drought with a triumph at the Texas Open last week, his fourth top-5 finish in his last six match play events. Spieth also played splendidly at the WGC-Match Play and has a solid history at Augusta. He’s never missed a cut and has four podium finishes, including a win in 2015, in seven starts.

Johnson is the only player with shorter than 10/1 odds, but the next tier of six golfers are at better than 18/1 odds. We’ve typically seen a player further up the odds board get fitted for the green jacket, so this week it will pay to not to stray, though there are some value selections.

The Field

With 88 golfers teeing it up The Masters has the smallest field of any major championship. It also contains the best players in the world making it a tough nut to crack. Officials at Augusta National said there won’t be any changes to the course, so those who competed just a few months ago can expect more of the same. Still, it’s not an easy course at nearly 7,500 yards with undulating greens that will be firmer than what we saw in November.

Golf isn’t an easy game and once things start to go off course (no pun intended) it’s sometimes hard to get it back. When DJ triumphed here a few months ago it was his second start since dealing with a bout of COVID. The physical aspect is a lot easier to overcome than the mental part of the game. As much as I like Johnson there are too many unknowns about his game. Despite his game being a seemingly good fit for Augusta, DeChambeau has never finished inside the top-20 in four starts.

Among the players high on the odds list Spieth stands out to me. He’s confidence level is off the charts after his recent surge and his play at Augusta speaks for itself. It is hard to win back-to-back tournaments, though. And playing in a stronger field than what he saw at TPC San Antonio is going to be different. Now that his head is on straight we could see McIlroy return to the form that had him the top-ranked golfer in the world not long ago.

We don’t have to stick to the top of the odds board. There are a number of value plays further down the list including 2018 champ Patrick Reed and two-time winner Bubba Watson. Cameron Smith was the first player to score four rounds in the 60s finishing as co-runner-up with Sungjae Im in November. Making his debut at Augusta, Im wasn’t overwhelmed by the moment and he’s continued his solid play making him worth a look.

The Masters Prediction

Our staff’s pick: Rory McIlroy +1450

The field is wide open and a number of favorites have their flaws. I believe Schauffele and Tony Finau are future major champions, but I keep circling back to McIlroy and his quest for the career grand slam.

Check out the latest golf odds for The Masters.