UFC Fight Night 95 Odds: Main Card Betting Guide

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2018
UFC Betting: UFC 209 Preview

Cris “Cyborg” Justino is the best – and most terrifying – women’s MMA fighter on the planet. It’s taken years for her to get to the octagon, but she’ll be headlining a UFC card in just her second fight with the promotion. Still, she remains a premier fighter without a division.

This Saturday, Cyborg meets UFC newcomer Lina Lansberg at a catchweight of 140 pounds in the main event of UFC Fight Night 95 in Brazil. It’s a matchup that should satisfy our appetite for violence, but leave us even hungrier to see how she’d fare against one of the UFC’s bantamweight stars.

Also on the main card is former bantamweight champion Renan Barao, a heavyweight slugfest between “Big Country” and “Bigfoot”, and two exciting lighter weight matchups. If you missed our earlier fight previews, here’s a quick rundown of the best MMA betting picks for this card.

All fight odds courtesy of BookMaker.eu (odds updated daily).

UFC Fight Night 95 Odds: Main Event

Cris Justino -1250
Lina Lanbserg +700
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over +290, under -350

Key Considerations

If Lansberg was anywhere near Cyborg’s level, she’d probably be in the UFC already. The Swedish striker hasn’t even fought in Bellator or Invicta FC yet. It actually seems as if the only reason the UFC is giving her a shot is that she was willing to sign the dotted line to fight Justino – when more accomplished fighters like Ronda Rousey, Holly Holm and Miesha Tate would not.

Lansberg has vowed to open up Cyborg with her Muay Thai, and to be fair, she does have a fair amount of experience as a pro kickboxer. “The Elbow Princess” has been in championship bouts with current bantamweight contender Valentina Shevchenko, which is an accomplishment in itself.

But walking into into a cage and trying to outstrike a Muay Thai serial killer like Cyborg is insanity. That’s like me challenging Steph Curry to a three-point contest on the basis that I drain a few treys in my weekly pickup games.

How You Should Bet

Lansberg’s only hope is that Cyborg’s weight cut goes so horribly that she enters the octagon looking like the equivalent of a Walking Dead extra. Even then, the reality is that it’s Lansberg that will likely leave the cage zombified. Cyborg to win is a given.

Our UFC Pick:

Parlay Cyborg to Win


 

UFC Fight Night 95 Odds: Featherweights

Renan Barao -425
Phillipe Nover +345
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -145, under +125

Key Considerations

In Dana White’s mind, this is a matchup between the former “best pound-for-pound fighter” and “the next Anderson Silva.” That’s how the UFC president respectively described Barao and Nover, which in hindsight sounds ridiculous. But hey, promoters gotta promote, right?

Barao was absolutely torn apart by T.J. Dillashaw – twice – and sent packing to the featherweight division. The Brazilian then lost his 145-pound debut to Jeremy Stephens. What’s more, he simply does not look like the same fighter that led to White’s hyperbole. Dillashaw may have permanently altered the course of Barao’s career for the worse.

On paper, Nover is exactly the type of midlevel fighter that Barao can use as a confidence booster. But this is a dangerous fight nonetheless. At times, Nover’s slick, athletic offense makes him look like a surefire top-10 fighter. But inconsistency and the inability to put all of his talents together in a coherent game have seriously held him back.

How You Should Bet

It’s tough to have much faith in Barao, but this is a guy who has already beaten fighters far superior to Nover. Still, I’d understand if you were nervous as the upset potential is high. Instead, take the over in UFC betting on this bout. Barao has seen a final round in three of his past four, and Nover has gone to decision in five of his past six.

Our UFC Pick:

The over on 2.5 rounds


 

UFC Fight Night 95 Odds: Heavyweights

Roy Nelson -445
Antonio Silva +350
Over/under 1.5  rounds, over +170, under -200

Key Considerations

Both Nelson and Silva don’t have much time left as professional cagefighters – they are 3-11-1 in their last last 15 combined fights. But Silva’s downward spiral has been far more dramatic: “Bigfoot” has been knocked out in the first round in five of his past seven fights. Clearly, age and the banishment of TRT – which Silva used to treat acromegaly – has left the two-time challenger a shell of his former self.

Meanwhile, “Big Country”, everyone’s favorite fat guy, is still eating punches all the way to the final bell. This is a guy that let Stipe Miocic and Alistair Overeem empty their entire clips on his face and body or three rounds. Even if you find guilty pleasure in seeing rotund bellies getting punched, it’s becoming extremely difficult watching Nelson lumber around as somebody’s punching bag.

How You Should Bet

Both Nelson and Silva have knockout power. But only Nelson still has a chin. Trying to fight without one in the heavyweight division is akin to playing in the NFL without a helmet.

Our UFC Pick:

Nelson to Win By TKO


 

UFC Fight Night 95: Lightweights

Francisco Trinaldo -128
Paul Felder +108
Over/under  rounds, over , under

Key Considerations

Trinaldo seems to be peaking at the ripe age of 38. In the stacked lightweight division, the Brazilian has quietly reeled off six straight wins, with some notable scalps in Ross Pearson, Norman Parke and Yancy Medeiros. Although it’s not common, finding your groove in your late 30s is not completely unheard of – just ask Demian Maia.

Paul Felder entered the UFC as an undefeated prospect in 2014. Two years later, he’s 4-2 inside the octagon. He’s righted the ship with two straight wins since suffering back-to-back losses to Edson Barboza and Ross Pearson, but another loss would relegate him to the prelims for a while.

How You Should Bet

In this battle of grinders, Trinaldo is a bit more fluid in merging MMA skills. Felder is either throwing crazy spinning stuff or working for takedowns. Trinaldo is putting it altogether with consistency. However, the safest bet is that this fight goes to decision. Neither men are really knockout artists nor big submission threats.

Our UFC Pick:

The over on 2.5 rounds

For more UFC odds and UFC Fight Night 95 previews, check out UFC Fight Night 95 Odds: Roy Nelson vs Antonio Silva

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Abe first encountered MMA in 2000, watching a VHS tape of Kazushi Sakuraba kicking the legs of a downed Royce Gracie in Pride Fighting Championships. He's been hooked ever since. Abe has penned NBA and NFL articles for Sports Illustrated and RotoExperts. In 2010, Abe signed on as the lead MMA writer for BigOnSports.com, and is now dedicated to helping fellow fans beat the odds.