So far in this MLB season like no other both the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees are meeting preseason expectations. Boston was written off for dead at the very moment that they traded Mookie Betts to the Dodgers. For Bosox fans it was the ultimate betrayal. Boston conducted itself as a small market team on a budget. By contrast the Yankees were anointed American League pennant winners the moment that free agent Gerrit Cole was signed for the biggest contract ever given to a pitcher. Each team has fulfilled those prognostications in the first month of action.
Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees Betting Odds Analysis
The Red Sox will be a tough sell for gamblers after Boston has already gushed them with red ink. Oddsmakers know that and as a result the Yankees will be a highly expensive favorite.
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Matchup Metrics
New York is 12-6 with just seven of their games going under the total. The Yankees lead the American League East. New York has MLB rankings of fourth for runs, first for OPS, fourth for home runs, 17th for earned run average, 19th for bullpen and 17th for errors.
Boston is the mirror opposite as the last place team in the American League East at 6-12 with just five of their games going over the total. The Red Sox rank 21st for runs, 18th for OPS, 26th for earned run average, 19th for bullpen and 26th for errors.
Boston Red Sox Probable Starter and Bullpen
Left hand starter Martin Perez has been effective but also unsupported. His record is 2-2 with a 3.38 ERA and WHIP of 1.22. In 21.1 innings he has allowed just one home run with 16 strikeouts.
Closer Brandon Workman has a tidy 1.80 ERA with 5.0 innings pitched and seven strikeouts. Last year was his first as a closer with an impressive 1.88 ERA. Workman dominated with 104 strikeouts in 71.2 innings of work.
New York Yankees Probable Starter and Bullpen
Left hand starter J.A. Happ is 0-1 with a 10.29 ERA. He has pitched only seven innings in two starts so far this season. Last year Happ was 12-8 with a 4.91 ERA.
Closer Zack Britton is 0-1 with a 1.23 ERA and seven saves in seven opportunities. Britton has been filling in for powerhouse closer Aroldis Chapman, who tested positive for the coronavirus at the start of the season but remains mysteriously on the disabled list.
Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees Betting Trends
The Red Sox are:
6-8 in their last 14 away games
1-5 under the total on the road
5-15 in their last 20 matchups at Yankee Stadium
4-9 under the total in road games at New York
The Yankees are:
15-5 in their last 20 overall games with the Red Sox
3-6 under the total head to head with Boston
14-6 in their last 20 tilts at Yankee Stadium
6-4-1 over the total at home
Aaron Judge has been ripping the hide off the ball for the Yankees but is day-to-day with a lower body issue. Judge is hitting .290 with a 1.101 OPS, nine home runs, and 20 runs batted in.
New York’s slugging designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton is out with a hamstring issue.
Yankee second baseman D. J. LeMahieu is hitting .431 with a 1.048 OPS, 14 runs, two home runs and eight runs batted in. He was an All-Star last year and was a two-time National League All-Star as a member of the Colorado Rockies.
Boston first baseman Mitch Moreland has a .303 average, 1.240 OPS, six home runs and 12 runs batted in.
Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees Pick
Red Sox at Yankees MLB Best Bet: Boston Red Sox
Even with Judge uncertain and Stanton out the Yankees will be the overwhelming public chalk. Boston’s season of futility has turned off an already skeptical gambling community. But with Martin Perez on the hill and with the Yankees lineup not at 100% the Red Sox figure to be a potentially strong contrarian value.
Check out the latest MLB odds for today.