If you’ve ever been to Las Vegas or seen pictures, you’ll immediately notice all of the glitz and glamor of some of the biggest, most luxurious buildings in the entire world. Those buildings weren’t built because city taxes are high.
No, those buildings were built by hard-earned, blue-collar dollars because 98 percent of gamblers lose over the long haul.
Square and Sharp Bettors
Online sportsbooks are no different. If sports betting were so simple that anyone could take the house for its money, books wouldn’t be in operation. Whether we like to admit it or not, most in the sports gambling world end up losing.
If you’re willing to begin your quest recognizing that most are defeated by the books, though, you’ll actually be manned with one of the most powerful tools to be in the minority and end up a winner.
Those who usually end up losing in the end are generally referred to as the “public,” or the “square bettors.” Those deep into pro betting who usually end up winning in the end are generally referred to as the “sharp bettors” or “wiseguys.”
How to Spot Public Sides
When an unranked team in college football is favored at home over a ranked team. When a 3-8 NFL team is favored at home over a 7-4 team. When a bad baseball team playing .400 ball is favored against a team playing .600 ball. When two teams both averaging over 30 points per game have a total of just 46.5.
You don’t need a PhD to understand what the books are doing here. Sports betting websites aren’t in business to take money from the unsuspecting public. They’re in business to try to make it so an equal amount of money is bet on both sides of the game.
So know full well when you see the Patriots lined at just -2 on the road against Buffalo, that the mass majority of people are going to think that New England is a steal.
How Sharp Bettors Think
That’s where your intuition needs to kick in about public betting. All of the sharp bettors know that the public is going to be backing the Patriots in the above example. So do the sportsbooks and sports handicappers. And though it does happen sometimes, sharps and squares are rarely playing the same side of any given game, particularly one with a spread that looks a bit fishy in the first place.
The other common public bet is the over. It happens time and time again, especially in big, prime time spots across all sports.
It’s human instinct to like to see points, runs and goals. No one likes to root for the clock to run out in a game without anything happening. So instinctively, the first gut that many public bettors have is, “Can this game get over the total?” Generally speaking, once a bettor asks himself or herself that question, they tend to talk themselves into the answer of, “Yes.”
Is the Sharp Money Against the Public?
History suggests that betting against the public in both college football and in the NFL will yield winning results in the long run. If you go back nearly a decade in the NFL, games in which 75 percent of the betting public was on one side of a game lost around 53 percent of the time. The numbers can be even more staggering in college football.
All good bettors know that winning 53 or 54 percent of the time can make you a mint in this business. That’s one of the best betting tips out there.
Sportsbooks have thrived off of public bettors making mistakes for decades upon decades. Align yourself with the books against the public, and you can put yourself in the minority of winners in the sports betting market.
What else can pro gamblers teach you? If you found this article useful, read Betting Mistakes Experienced Gamblers Would Never Make