This hasn’t been my best start to the season, and it might just be my worst. At least I was able to grab multiple wins after upping my number of plays, but I am still a pitiful 4-10 ATS through four weeks. Jacksonville and New Orleans were my winners, but the Chiefs and Bengals were always behind the number, and Miami came up short once more. I’m going to keep firing away, and hopefully I turn it around this year. If not, maybe you’ll have made a mint fading these plays if nothing else.
Overall: 4-10 ATS
NFL Week 5 Consensus Picks
NFL Week 5 Best Bets (Sunday, October 6)
New England Patriots (-15) at Washington Redskins
The pick: Patriots -15
It’s time for Jay Gruden to be put out of his misery. Gruden could be fired at any moment, and some online sportsbooks believe that he will be fired at the end of this game. Reports circulated that Gruden was facing a must win against the New York Giants, and Washington ended up falling flat, losing 24-3.
Gruden seems like he’s ready to go. He has been testy with the media when asked whether Case Keenum or Dwayne Haskins will start against New England, and both quarterbacks were just awful against the Giants last week. Haskins completed just 9 of 17 passes for 107 yards with three interceptions, while Keenum completed 6 of 11 passes for 37 yards and threw a pick too.
The main concern when it comes to the cover is how serious New England takes this game. The Patriots play the Giants next Thursday, and Bill Belichick might want to rest his starters early to avoid fatigue.
Still, I think New England does more than enough to get the cover. Tom Brady and the Patriots offense will have heard about their poor performance throughout the week, and they will want to come out gunning against the Redskins. Washington’s defense is ranked 26th according to DVOA, so the Pats should have no trouble carving this team up.
New Orleans Saints (-3) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Over/Under 47)
The pick: UNDER 47
If Drew Brees were healthy, there would be no way I would take this under unless it was in the 50s. However, Brees isn’t healthy, and Teddy Bridgewater has been running the Saints in his stead. New Orleans is 2-0 with Bridgewater under center, but he hasn’t been great. He has yet to throw for more than 200 yards in any game this year, and he is averaging just 6.1 yards per pass.
The ground game and the defense have been what has led the Saints in Brees’ absence. New Orleans has committed to the run with Alvin Kamara more than in the past, and the defense came up big last week by allowing just 10 points to Dallas.
That defense will bottle up Tampa Bay, and the Buccaneers are going to shut down New Orleans’ run game. The Bucs are allowing an NFL best 2.9 YPC this season, and they are going to force Bridgewater to beat them through the air. He has yet to prove he can do that, so expect this game to be low scoring.
Houston Texans (-5) vs. Atlanta Falcons
The pick: Texans -5
Deshaun Watson has put up excellent numbers when he has been upright this season. Watson is on pace to complete 65.1 percent of his passes for 3,752 yards this season with 24 touchdowns against just four interceptions. However, the big concern has been keeping him on his feet. Despite adding Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard, Watson has been sacked 18 times through four games.
Fortunately for the Texans, this Atlanta pass rush has not been good. The Falcons have just five sacks through four games, and Watson is likely to have a lot of time in the pocket. That would be great news for Houston, giving their star quarterback ample time to find open receivers.
The Atlanta offense is rated 21st in the NFL according to DVOA, and the Falcons just haven’t clicked. Their run game has been dismal, leading to drives continually stalling out.
Check out NFL Week 5 betting lines.