It was nice to finally have a winning week in Week 5 of the NFL season. The New England Patriots and Houston Texans gave me my first profitable week of the season, as the Patriots predictably hammered the Redskins on the road while Deshaun Watson had a field day against an Atlanta defense that looks lost. My only loser was the under in New Orleans and Tampa Bay as Teddy Bridgewater had a great game in a 31-24 win for the Saints. Let’s keep it rolling in Week 6.
Week 1: 1-2 ATS
Week 2: 0-3 ATS
Week 3: 1-2 ATS
Week 4: 2-3 ATS
Week 5: 2-1 ATS
Overall: 6-11 ATS
NFL Week 6 Consensus Picks
NFL Week 6 Best Bets (Sunday, October 13)
Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Our pick: Chargers -6.5
A team can only lose so much. One of the best offenses of the last few years lost its best receiver and best running back in free agency, and its star quarterback suffered a season-ending injury in Week 2. Despite those losses, Pittsburgh rolled the dice with Mason Rudolph by sending a first-round pick to the Miami Dolphins for Minkah Fitzpatrick, but the Steelers are wishing they could take that move back right now.
The Steelers are about to bottom out. Pittsburgh is set to lose Rudolph for an extended period of time after he suffered a severe concussion against the Baltimore Ravens last week, and undrafted rookie Devlin Hodges is going to have a hard time moving the ball against one of the best secondaries in the NFL. Hodges is an Air Raid quarterback from Samford that lit up the FCS, but he is not going to have much success at this level. His mechanics aren’t great, and he does not have the frame you want to see in an NFL quarterback.
Pittsburgh’s secondary is a mess, and Philip Rivers will pick the Steelers apart. Expect the Chargers to win this game by double digits and easily cover the NFL betting odds.
Baltimore Ravens (-12) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Our pick: Ravens -12
I’m laying a lot of chalk here, but I love the Ravens in this spot. They are 3-2 and on top of the AFC North, and Baltimore will want to blast a bad team after some middling performances these last few weeks.
In particular, Lamar Jackson is out to have a big game after throwing five interceptions in his last two games. Defensive coordinators have brought pressure to rattle Jackson, and that has succeeded, but John Harbaugh and Baltimore will make some adjustments. Cincinnati doesn’t have the same talent on defense as other teams in the division, so the Bengals are unlikely to have similar success.
On the other side of the ball, don’t expect Cincinnati to move the ball against this Baltimore defense. The Bengals’ run game has been non-existent, and top targets John Ross III and A.J. Green are injured. Tyler Boyd is the only real weapon in the passing game, and Baltimore will rotate coverage his way.
Kansas City Chiefs (-4) vs. Houston Texans, Over 55
Our pick: OVER 55
These are two of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, and they will light up the scoreboard. Both teams have great receivers that can make things happen with the ball in their hands, and the defensive backs for each team haven’t been great.
Patrick Mahomes II should have a big day after throwing just one touchdown in his last two games. Mahomes took a hit on his ankle against Indianapolis last week, but he is expected to be ready for Sunday. He has thrown for at least 300 yards in each game this season, so it’s only a matter of time before he finds the end zone once more.
Deshaun Watson is coming off the best game of the season. Watson completed 84.8 percent of his passes for 426 yards with five touchdowns last week, and he showed what he can do when he has time in the pocket. This offensive line is finally starting to gel, and as long as he is sacked no more than twice, I expect Houston to score 30 points on this defense.
Check out the latest NFL Week 6 betting lines.