NFL Week 10 Best Bets

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NFL Picks: Week 10

It’s been a horrendous season to date. I am hitting just over a third of my plays per the NFL betting odds, and that has left me in the red. My bankroll is down nearly 40 percent from where it was two months ago, but I’m looking to close out strong over these next two months. That will start this week when I end up in the black for the third week this season.

Week 1: 1-2 ATS
Week 2: 0-3 ATS
Week 3: 1-2 ATS
Week 4: 2-3 ATS
Week 5: 2-1 ATS
Week 6 : 0-2-1 ATS
Week 7: 2-1 ATS
Week 8: 1-2 ATS
Week 9: 1-2 ATS
Overall: 10-18-1 ATS

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NFL Week 10 Best Bets (Sunday, November 10)

Arizona Cardinals +4.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

You can’t trust Tampa Bay, and you certainly can’t trust the Buccaneers as a favorite. The Buccaneers are 2-6 ATS on the season, while the Cardinals are 6-3 ATS this year.

Arizona has started to come together under rookie head coach Kliff Kingsbury and rookie quarterback Kyler Murray. The Cardinals nearly knocked off San Francisco on Halloween, losing to the undefeated 49ers by just a field goal, and they have had an extra few days to prepare for this game since they played on Thursday night.

Tampa Bay nearly knocked off Seattle in the Emerald City, but the Buccaneers now must return home after a long flight. They are 2-6 with losses in four straight games, and this team might be ready to mail it in for the rest of the campaign. Todd Bowles’ defense no longer looks as strong as it did earlier in the season, and the Bucs have one of the worst secondaries in the NFL.

Murray and the Cardinals will keep this game within the number and have a fantastic chance of pulling off the upset per the NFL betting odds.


Cincinnati Bengals +10 vs. Baltimore Ravens

This is an excellent spot to bet Cincinnati. Everyone is high on Baltimore after the Ravens became the first team to beat New England last week, and the Ravens are probably looking ahead at least a little bit to Houston next week.

However, Baltimore’s performance against New England was not unexpected. John Harbaugh is the NFL’s best coach with two weeks to prepare for an opponent, and this team looked a lot different before the bye week. The Ravens did go on the road to beat Seattle right before the bye week, but they lost by 15 points at home against Cleveland, needed overtime to beat Pittsburgh, and they only beat Cincinnati by six points in Baltimore.

Cincinnati has had two weeks to prepare for this game. Andy Dalton is no longer the starting quarterback, and Zac Taylor will script a solid gameplan for rookie quarterback Ryan Finley. We’ve seen rookie quarterbacks play well in their debuts before tailing off, and with two weeks to prepare for the Ravens, I expect a nice performance from Finley.


Green Bay Packers -5.5 vs. Carolina Panthers

The Packers laid an egg out in Los Angeles last week, but this team is significantly better than the Panthers. Green Bay is the No. 8 team in the NFL per DVOA, while Carolina is the No. 16 team in that same metric, and the Packers have a fantastic home field advantage.

Carolina is falling back down to Earth. Opponents realize that Kyle Allen is not a great quarterback, and the Panthers depend heavily on Christian McCaffrey to touch the ball as much as possible. McCaffrey has an outside chance to be named the NFL MVP, but he might be starting to wear down due to his prodigious workload

The Panthers’ secondary has been eviscerated this season. Subpar quarterbacks like Ryan Tannehill and Gardner Minshew II have lit up these defensive backs, and Aaron Rodgers should have a massive day against Carolina. Conversely, Green Bay’s defense should limit McCaffrey and lead the Packers to a rather comfortable victory. Expect the Packers to win by double digits on Sunday.

Check out the latest NFL Week 10 betting lines.