NFL Week 12 Best Bets

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My NFL woes continue to leave me frustrated on a personal and financial level. I’m hitting under 40 percent of my plays this season, and if my poor picking continues, then all my Christmas shopping will be done by layaway.

To recap last week, Tampa Bay never had a chance to cover against New Orleans as bad Jameis showed up and threw four interceptions in a 34-17 defeat. The LA Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs failed to bring their explosive offenses through customs, combining to score a paltry 41 points in a game that should have been far more high scoring. My lone win was backing the Los Angeles Rams at home against Chicago, as Mitchell Trubisky was simply awful once again in leading the Bears to just seven points.

Week 1: 1-2 ATS
Week 2: 0-3 ATS
Week 3: 1-2 ATS
Week 4: 2-3 ATS
Week 5: 2-1 ATS
Week 6 : 0-2-1 ATS
Week 7: 2-1 ATS
Week 8: 1-2 ATS
Week 9: 1-2 ATS
Week 10: 2-1 ATS
Week 11: 1-2 ATS
Overall: 13-21-1 ATS

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NFL Week 12 Best Bets (Sunday, November 24)

Cincinnati Bengals +6.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Hold your nose when you bet this one. Cincinnati is the only team without a victory remaining in the NFL, but the Bengals have been surprisingly competitive for an 0-10 team. Half of their losses were by one score, and four of those defeats came against teams above .500 in Seattle, Buffalo, Baltimore, and Oakland.

Pittsburgh hammered Cincinnati in the Steel City on the last day of September, but this isn’t the same Steelers team. James Conner led the way with 125 yards from scrimmage in that game, but he is questionable this week. The Steelers’ top two receivers could be out as well with JuJu Smith-Schuster considered doubtful to play and Diontae Johnson questionable. That’s not good since Mason Rudolph is already one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL, and he needs all the help he can receive.

All-Pro center Maurkice Pouncey is out for this game as well, so I just don’t see Pittsburgh’s offense scoring the points it needs to win by a touchdown on the road even if Ryan Finley has been underwhelming as a starter.


Denver Broncos +4 at Buffalo Bills

The Bills have been somewhat exposed. Buffalo’s 7-3 record is largely the result of an absurdly weak schedule. None of their wins have come against teams with winning records, and their best win was against 5-5 Tennessee.

Josh Allen has regressed after a strong start to the season as defenses pressure him to consistently be accurate with his passes, and the ground game isn’t as potent as it was earlier in the season.

Denver might be 3-7, but the Broncos have played a far tougher schedule than the Bills. They have shown fire despite their subpar record and should have beat Minnesota on the road last week. This defense has been very good against the run, so Denver has a great chance of pulling off the upset.


Atlanta Falcons -4 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I don’t understand this line. The Falcons have looked sharp for two straight weeks, while Tampa Bay continues to do Tampa Bay things. Jameis Winston has now thrown 18 interceptions this season and can’t be trusted on the road, and Atlanta’s defense has done an excellent job of getting to the quarterback since Raheem Morris became defensive coordinator. The Falcons didn’t allow either New Orleans or Carolina to score a touchdown the last two weeks, and this team looks much different after the bye.

Matt Ryan has shown why he was considered the favorite to lead the NFL in passing yards at the beginning of the season too. Calvin Ridley and Julio Jones have been thriving in this offense, and Tampa Bay has one of the worst secondaries in the league. Ridley and Jones could each finish the day with over 100 receiving yards as Atlanta looks to finish out the year strong and potentially save Dan Quinn’s job.

Check out the latest NFL Week 12 betting lines.